Blowtorch Turned On. Runs Out Of Fuel By End Of Week

Again, we're looking at a consistent model run for early Wed. Very warm air cranked into the state on strong southwesterly winds that could be gusting up to 30 mph in the coming day. The fire danger, especially west, will have to be taken seriously. There is some debate as to when the warming will be shunted south and east. The new GFS shows it sticking around through Thursday. The front has difficulty moving through. The ECMWF has it moving through the state.

The west (Rocky Mountains) turns colder and snowier. Good news for anyone heading to Utah to ski this week. I wonder who that could be???

Blowtorch Warm Coming. March In Like A Lamb Or Lion?

This map is showing 850 mb temperatures in degrees C on Wed. morning. The red you see in TX and OK is very warm air surging east into Arkansas underneath a building ridge of high pressure. This map implies, assuming plenty of sunshine Wednesday, highs would easily reach the 70's and maybe 80 degress in western and southern Arkansas. It's blowtorching in front of a cold front which will cool us by the end of the week. Looks like March will roar in like a Lamb for Arkansas, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE UNITED STATES IS MORE LIKE A LION.

Here We Go For A Wild And Wacky Weekend

Well, after 70's for highs Wed. and Thurs. the much talked about arctic air is here and it's shallow as I thought. Therefore we will see icy condtions for the southern 2/3 of the state with snow across the northern1/3. Amounts up north could be 1-3'' with isolated areas getting a bit more. The remainder of the state will deal with sleet and freezing rain. Most of the precip. in central areas will be sleet with freezing rain mixed in. South of Little Rock, look out for freezing rain causing a glaze on trees and powerlines. The system will move out by Sat. afternoon and yet another one could move in Sunday afternoon.

Arctic Air Advances... !!!Attention Arkansas!!!

Yes, it will feel like Spring Wednesday Friday, then it will feel like the inside of your freezer for sure come this weekend.. Cold low level arctic air will seep into the state Friday. This has ice written all over it. Still can't say with 100% confidence, but this is classic textbook stuff for ice in the Natural State. Cold air is dense so as you go up in elevation, it actually gets warmer. Up above it may be well above freezing so that whatever falls is rain, then it hits the subfreezing low level air and wallah, ice ice baby. Amounts should not be too heavy since the jet will be roaring above carrying any disturbances rapidly, plus moisture will be hard to come by. But it doesn't take much to slicken us up.