Sunday, November 28, 2010

Video Blog Discussion 11-28-10

6:30 PM Monday Update...  I have had the chance to review the long range models for next week and they continue to show what I fear (for snow lovers).  The system may get crushed to the south.  I'm not giving up since it's still in the long term and can change.  As a matter of fact, I know it will change several more times.  No matter what happens, it appears the pattern will favor intrusions of cold air into our region of the country.  There's a lot going on and I'll keep you updated.


Even though Thanksgiving has come and gone, I want to express my highest level of thanks that after more than 30 hours of tornado watches in Arkansas over the past week, NOT A SINGLE TORNADO!  Let's stick to winter weather for awhile ok?

8 AM Monday Update... What can I say?  Yesterday started out a great day, but went downhill last night when I got the news about Leslie Nielsen.  His one liners were classic and his movies were my type of comedy.  My all time favorite is "Airplane" followed closely by the "Naked Gun" series.  There are so many great lines and some of them shouldn't be put on the blog, but here's one of my favorites...

"Frank: It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girl dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.

Jane: Goodyear?

Frank: No, the worst:"

If you think I surely can't be serious about liking Nielsen,  I am serious and stop calling me Shirley.

Ok, now that we got that out of the way, let's talk weather...
Yes, there's the threat for severe weather today, but I think the worst of it will stay south where the greater instability can be found.  I may have more to say about this "slight risk" later today.

Also, I can't believe no one is talking about next week, with the exception of Snowbirdbob.  Remember, you heard the talk first right here on the weather blog.  While, things will more than likely change, the more trustworthy European model continues to show fun and games in exactly one week.  December 6th and 7th show a chance for a round of wintry weather across the mid south.  I'M NOT SAYING THIS IS SET IN STONE AND GOING TO HAPPEN!  But there are indications of forecast challenges which may prompt a special "Arkansas Weather Live".  Can't wait.  I'll have more on this later on.  But for now...

Ed - wanna take a dingy...
Frank- no thanks Ed, I took care of that at the press conference.


29 comments:

Drake said...

According to AccuWeather.com: Northern Louisiana...Tuesday night, 1/4 inch of ice.

Anonymous said...

very nice Todd with the maps and explaining what Could happen. like i said before i always know me an my family and friends can always count on you.

@joshgreenonline said...

Thanks Todd. that was a very in depth, yet simple explanation of what the future models have in store. Great job on the video blogs! Keep up the great work!!! :)

Anonymous said...

i love winter weather an i love it todd when u show us all these neat maps an i look forward to more in the future

Anonymous said...

Is there a by any chance that northern arkansas will get any major winter storm soon? If someone could let me know that would be great!

jimmylee42 said...

Todd,interesting info on the possible senarios next week.

Read today that Buffalo,NY got first measurable snow of the season. They almost set a record for a snow drought. It had been Feb 28 since their last measurable snowfall. That was 271 days which was 7 days off the record.

SNOWBIRD BOB said...

Hello Everyone, Here are my first take on the possible winter storm the week of Dec.6-10, Yes, I do think we will have a storm, it all depends on the track, we could be looking at heavy snow from Northern Ark or as far south as me down here in Northern La. The details will come together as we head into later this week, I beleive this will be a snowman maker. By the way we have another chance at sleet mix again this Tuesday down here in North La & South Ark again. Regarding the big storm, Both of the long range models are in crazy agreement for some time now. Hey Todd, I beleive this next Ark weather live will be a big ticket event..We Shall See...

Anonymous said...

Lets hope the little rock conway and searcy areas get some snow it would be great i love snow just standing in it with it falling on me i can stand in it for hours when its falling from the sky its so beautiful and fun. Todd thanks again for keeping us posted i cant understand how to read models and its confusing. Thats why i say u are the best meterologist in arkansas hands down. Snowbirdbob thanks for your insight i look forward to your posts as well. Great job for the both of you .

WeatherNinja said...

Been watching the models on this possible winter event. Euro is doing well, but the GFS is shifting the moisture to the south. They are both in agreement that something is brewing. Will be fun to watch it. This is the same system the GFS has a week or so ago but just a two days later. Would love to see a early December winter weather event. Will be watching today's weather for possible severe weather in N Louisiana, Mississippi and may squeeze some into SE Ark.

Anonymous said...

For the last two years I have been waiting on Pine Bluff to get some snow. Needless to say, I have been greatly disappointed. My birthday is the 6th. If this forecast pans out and we get snow anytime between the 5th and the 7th, I will officially condider that one of the best birthday presents ever!!! :-D

Anonymous said...

This system needs to be watch. I'd love to see about 10 inches of snow in northern Louisiana/southern Arkansas.

Anonymous said...

Just praying that we keep this rain and clouds around so the sun doesn't break through! NO INSTABILITY! Scared of Tornadoes BAD!

Blitzkrieger said...

As a transplanted Minnesotan, I find these discussions quite interesting. I have wondered what would happen if Arkansas had a good old fashion blizzard (35 mph winds, 0 visibility). The storms that last 2-3 days and drop 20+ inches of snow that stays on the ground until spring.

I then realize what it would mean to the people of Arkansas. There are no ways for that snow to be removed. Houses, barns, and schools would all collapse. Roads would be shut down for very long periods of time, and worst of all - Walmart would be all sold out of bread and milk.

My favorite part of a good snow storm would be the day after when the high pressure sets in and the sundogs are bright and shining. Temperatures struggle to get above -20F and you can see sublimation and deposition in action. Everything glitters. The snow is being turned into vapor and the vapor is freezing. You go outside to play in the new snow until your eyelashes start freezing shut.

I guess that is just one of the main differences in living 1000 miles south of where I grew up.

Thanks for keeping us posted Todd. It’s fun to see so many people so excited for what I took for granted.

SNOWBIRD BOB said...

Hello Everyone, You couldn't ask for a much more exciting weather pattern as we head into next week, As you all know I have been doing alot of research on the PNA,NAO,& AO for the recent years,boy I tell you what, The storm next week looks to be a blockbuster of a winter storm for someone in the Mid-South.And you want to talk about cold air getting drawn in with that storm.This is the kind of storm that dumps over 6 inches of snow in many places,& sticks around for several days. This pattern may not produce the kind of cold in Dec. 1989, but may blow it away as far a winter precip for some of us down here, I would much rather see winter storms than dry frigid temps.Once into 140 hours I will give my in-depth predictions on next weeks possible storm, To me thats very fun predicting what may happen..Stay Safe..Oh & for Pine Bluff Birthday wish cross your fingers, I will say this I am giving the I-40 of Ark to the I-20 of Northern La the best shot at seeing the most winter weather with the system next week :) We Shall See..

Weatherclipper said...

Todd and Snowbirdbob, I see the model agreement and get excited about winter weather as much as anybody. I know this blog is here to have open discussion about possibilities.

I appreciate what Bob and Todd are saying, but do want to point out how rare it is to get snow in Arkansas, especially central and south Arkansas. If a winter storm does develop over Arkansas next week, it will be a rare event. With this said, the models will most likely change between now and next week. I’ve seen the models agree before and then miss the whole thing.

For the fun of it, I hope it snows knee deep to a Giraffe. It probably will snow since I am traveling next week to Denver CO. I will see snow there for sure as the storm system is set to be dumping on them when I get there Monday afternoon. Every time I travel we have a significant weather event in Arkansas, so we have that track record on our side.

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

weatherclipper

Anonymous said...

Well.i got the bad news todd little rock is not going to get snow next week the system to far south. That figures its going to be another year like what might have been an could have been. This is ni fun it just makes me sick to know were going to miss out again. Its getting very old

nlrweatherman said...

I dont think anyone can say we will miss out, this forecast will change several times. It might be better that it changed to farther south because in the end it will change back to farther north (central Arkansas). If we don't see snow in December we will see it after our 2nd big severe weather outbreak this winter -Just throwing that out there

Anonymous said...

Im hoping northern arkansas gets a few inches. My birthday is coming up on the 4th of december so hopefully it snows a good 3 to 5 inches up in mountain home.

Anonymous said...

Oh....say it isn't so, Todd!!! This has got to be our year!! All that snow in Dallas and points south last winter made me sick!! Not this year....this is our time!! Shift it back to the North ASAP!

Anonymous said...

todd i just hope little rock/ searcy areas can at least get one inch from this storm. it would get us all in the spirit a little early this year at worst maybe a snow shower or two.

Anonymous said...

I didn't know about the weather blog this time last year and I am curious....how many times did the models show a snow set up last year similar to the one we're seeing for next week? Is this looking like a pretty good shot, or do the models often build up our hopes and go bust?

Anonymous said...

looks like we missed out again. its going to be a dry winter always something seems to happen. we are in a snow drought i cant remember the last time Little Rock had a decent snow. this is really sad guess i could go move to snowbirdbobs hometown im sure i would see alot more snow there then here in little rock arkansas

WeatherNinja said...

To the last comment, really? You can't remember the last time LR saw a decent snow? How about February of last year (7.2 inches). Is this Hugh? At least put your name on the comment so we know who we are talking too. Every year there are the same people who boo hoo the entire winter..if the weather here is so bad that you have to complain year after year..move.

SNOWBIRD BOB said...

Whoooo Ninja, Don't pull out your throwing snow flake stars, Yall are too funny.Ninja, I was thinking the same thing, They must have been out of town last Feb...lol.Hey, We did see 2 good snowdays last year 1 inch & 5.8 inches. You'll get some snow this year lol. We haven't even started the winter season yet. People can start talking in like April if we hadn't seen any by then...

Will said...

Hey Ninja, relax dude. Some peopele just take the weather just a bit too seriously......

Anonymous said...

Snowbird, I hope you're right. I don't want to even think about how many times last year I just knew PB was gonna get some snow--and then, nothing. To the poster who grew up in an area where snow was more common than not, yeah it's a real big deal for those of us who don't see much. :-) I can't wait to see how this system evolves. I love this time of year and watching the weather with all of you just makes it that much more fun. My fingers are crossed and I'm doing my snow dance singing, "Happy Birthday to me, happy birthday to me...:-D"

P.S. Ninja, did your "send" button get stuck on twitter this morning? Lol...

WeatherNinja said...

Will...I am as relaxed as they come just not when the same old complaints start up year after year..it gets old after a while.

Not sure about the tweets..someone said the same thing yesterday but it only showed up on the blog.

:0

Justin said...

Winter isn't even here yet. We will see some form of measurable winter precip. Maybe even a snow day or two. We have until March, so the odds are in our favor if we are already talking snow in December!

Will said...

Hey Ninja, I remember Hugh from last year and I do remember he kept harping on the same thing so I guess I can understand the frustration. Question for yourself, Todd and our other Weather Guru's and model observers--Which model has proven to be the most accurate on winter weather events?