Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Some Holiday Spirit May Fall Tonight For Some

9:20 PM Tuesday Update...  Remember, this is only one piece of data and it's new tonight showing some possible accumulation for west central and southeast Arkansas.  I know everyone is hungry for snow, but this is just not the storm to satisfy your appetite. 

If you have pictures, remember to send them to photo@katv.com

New post Wednesday dealing with the "Wild Weekend Weather".

Be sure to check out "Ninja's Corner" for a special Christmas message from NOAA weather radio... it's a good laugh!

One computer model tonight showing up to an inch for far west central AR.

 6:30 PM Tuesday Update... Just had a chance to look at some of the latest info. out there and I feel the late run of our model "Futurecast" from Monday night shows what should happen.  I have it reposted below.  I want to keep stressing how this is not going to be a big deal, but it will put a smile on the face of snow lovers.  Remember the address to send pictures is photo@katv.com

I will have a new post Wednesday dealing with the "Wild Weekend Weather"

Late Monday run of Futurecast.

Noon Tuesday Update... WOW, futurecast has really back off on the snowfall potential tonight.  

Tuesday AM Futurecast Run

11AM Tuesday Update... While I'm not sold on details yet, there's the possibility we have some brutally cold weather Sunday into Monday.  I want to see what the Euro has with this system before I bite.  It has the POTENTIAL to be a very cold, very windy, and cloudy Sunday.  Light snow would be possible across the north and wind chill values could be in the teens and 20s easily during the day.  After I look at more data, I'll start a new post.

We started tracking this system here on the blog the Saturday following Thanksgiving.  The European model showed a healthy snow storm while the GFS showed absolutely nothing.  Then the models flip flopped and it was the GFS showing the snow while the Euro backed off.  Then both models completely backed off of the snow.  Slowly, they started coming back around to a solution that has the snow, but not much of it.

If you think it's wild, that's typical of the long range models to do this. 

Posted below are the last two runs of our exclusive model, "Futurecast".  The first image is the latest one showing what I have been thinking for the past couple of days.  The higher elevations of western Arkansas will see the most... and it won't be much.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy dusting to 1 inch atop places like Rich Mountain near Mena.  Snow lovers, this isn't a typical snow set up as the storm is moisture starved.  It will fight dry air, and for a time, temperatures could be a bit above freezing as the light precipitation starts.  Nevertheless, I do think flakes will fly and WE WANT YOUR PICTURES.... photo@katv.com

I know we have several bloggers in this area of the state from Mena to DeQueen to Umpire.  Let us know what you see and show us your snow!

Snowbirdbob's "Sweet Spot" is Magnolia where he says up to 1'' will be possible there.  We'll see how good his predictions are!

Now onto next weekend.  There's some disagreement on the models with the timing and placement of a storm.  Right now, I think it's safe to say we'll have a chance for rain followed by very windy and cold weather once again.  Where the wrap around moisture sets up in the cold air sector is up for debate.  I'll have more on this Wednesday.

Thanks for all the well wishes.  I think it's time to see the doctor.  Fever, soar throat, and feeling like you've been hit by a truck.  I hear this is going around.  I realized how bad it was last night when I woke myself up snoring.  LOL

The Monday evening run of "Futurecast"

The Monday morning run of "Futurecast"


Anonymous said...

Hi everyone just a few thouhts on the upcoming weather tues nite and this weekend. Tues nite zip for central ark. Sat rain . I fhought i would make it short and sweet.

raishaw said...

Can't wait to see what happens in PB tonight! I would love to eat my words about no birthday snow. Still celebrating and waiting...:-D

Anonymous said...

Hey Todd we will keep a look out for some snow down here in sw ark. maybe we will see some.

WeatherNinja said...

Must be a ch7 bug as my wife has the same thing. I mentioned Rich Mountain on my previous comment as I think elevation is going to play a big roll in this event. The 6z GFS had a little bit of moisture to work with over SE OK and SW AR.

Still showing some wrap around moisture and cold air over the north Saturday. It will be intersting to see how far that gets pulled south as a southward shift in the low could impact us more.

Looking at the radar this morning, alot of people were excited to see pink and green over East OK and parts of W AR. Looks to be alot of virga at this point.

Since we are all talking snow, I'm goint to repost my snow chasing video from Rich Mountain that was shot March 21st. It's nice to look at what we might get this year :). Look for it on Ninja's Corner.


Anonymous said...

Lets hope conway an little rock get some snow sat nite as i feel this will be our last chance of snow this winter. I just have a feeling we will miss out on the snow this weekend to. seems like the moisture always moves out before the cold air comes in. i dont like being negative like hugh but i just dont see us getting any snow this winter. the cold air and moisture never seem to meet.ninja u better get ur meal tickets ready.

Anonymous said...

Even if it gets cold sunday and monday the cold wont last very long. Next week at this time may hit 50 degrees. There is a pattern change starting next week ark will see temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s and will stay that way for the next 3 to 4 weeks at least. Looks like another warm christmas around 55 to 65 degrees looks like hugh the doubter may be on to something. Hey im just sayin.

Anonymous said...

Im sick of ark weather it stinks. Hugh u are a doubting thomas u are so negative u.make me sick. But u are right no snows coming to cen ark. This is going to be another boring winter. im going to be movin to iowa next spring for a job..i wont have to worry about snowless winters again.all this cold weather and nothing to show for it. it makes me sick it makes me mad.

Anonymous said...

Suck it up whiners! I want snow just as much as the next person but whining isn't going to make that happen! Whaa Whaa whaa I want snow whaa whaa whaa but it isn't going to happen whaa whaa whaa....

Anonymous said...

Anonymous moving to Iowa: With your attitude I'm sure your new company will be happy to have you and the people of Arkansas will be glad to see you leave!

Anonymous said...

Well I am a different anonymous than ya'll and the guy that said the thing about the cold not sticking around for long could be wrong with long range models don't do well with cold and they always want to go the the averages for us! I think the cold will stick around!

Anonymous said...

Were getting snow this weekend in northern arkansas. Idk about accumulations yet. Mr. anonymous quit the negative crap. Once again winter hasnt even started yet. We got til march 21 before we run out of chances of snow. Go up north if you dont like arkansas climate. We get cold rains and ice down here.

Weatherdummy said...

Todd, when you say "very windy" on sunday do you mean o crap, i can't feel my face windy or o crap, there goes my storage building rolling across the yard windy? Just wanting to know how to prepare.

Weatherdummy said...

By the way, if you haven't gone to check out the NOAA christmas message you need to. It cracked me up.