Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Tuesday Trouble and Model Wars Next Week

2:45 PM Tuesday Update... The snow is now falling in eastern Arkansas as we have been tracking those possibilities here on the Arkansas Weather Blog for several days.  Again, the highest amounts will stay in northern Mississippi and western Tennessee.  While we will NOT get any in central Arkansas, it was still amazing to watch the computer models slowly change their tune over the past several days and it was fun to track it with you.  If you have snow pictures in eastern Arkansas, send them to photo@katv.com

Now onto the next BIG weather event.  I guess you would have to say temperatures in the 60s BIG since we have been so cold lately, but let's skip past Friday and Saturday and give you an update on next week.

The GFS continues to insist the arctic broundary pass through here late Saturady into Sunday, but the Euro continues to be slower with the colder air coming in late Monday.  The Euro continues to show rain changing to some wintry weather Monday afternoon as a wave of low pressure passes by.  On the other hand, the GFS with all the cold air in place brings a wave of snow/ice late Tuesday into Wednesday.  There are HUGE differences with the major long term models and I'll keep you updated!

My morning routine consists of making a cup of coffee and pouring over the all the latest data from the overnight hours.  The 30 minute daily habit was mostly spent studying the model differences next weekend into next week.  After 20-25 minutes I had to stop after realizing I was getting way ahead of myself since we had some snow in the forecast TODAY for SOME Arkansans.

So let's talk about today.  Remember, this storm was suppose to develop several hundred miles east of Arkansas according to the models.    Over the last 3 days, they keep shoving the storm to the west and now a final track is likely to take a swath of very heavy, wet snow into northern Mississippi and western Tennessee late today and tonight.  Yes, I do expect flakes to fly across eastern Arkansas and some accumulation will be possible near the Mississippi River.  Our own Blogger, Snowbirdbob, is snow chasing today in western TN and we hope to have a few pictures from him eventually.

If the models had such a difficult time figuring out this storm, how in the world do we know what exactly will happen next week?  Welcome to the world of forecasting! LOL

One thing that looks good right now is the strong warm up ahead of the next boundary we have been talking about since last week.  The overnight run of the GFS even takes temperatures in central Arkansas into the low to mid 60s Friday and Saturday.  Don't get use to it!  Another batch of arctic air will arrive, but exactly when is the question.

According to the late run of the Euro yesterday, it wants to keep the cold air bottled up until Monday night into Tuesday while the 00Z run of the GFS takes temperatures down starting Sunday.  What about precipitation?  The GFS has a quick hit of rain Sunday, then the cold air comes pouring into the Natural State.  The Euro does basically the same thing, but manages to keep the cold air to the north.  Another wave of energy will produce more precipitation Tuesday/Tuesday night.  With the cold air in place, the GFS says this will form on the front to the south and bring wintry weather to the state.  The Euro is mostly rain as it develops the system on the front to the north.  A change to some wintry weather would be possible as the system departs.

So we're trying to figure out what exactly will happen in one week... good luck right?  I'll keep you updated here!


Shack said...

Great update as always and the reason why I watch KATV for my local news!

Good luck with that long range forecast ;)

P.S. Get us some good pics Snowbird bob and enjoy that snow!

Anonymous said...

Hey todd work on getting us one more good snow in little rock an surrounding cities conway, cabot, searcy bryant, benton. when i say good snow i mean 2 inches minimum. Work on that for next week please . My kids want a couple more free days off cause they love snow. Thanks Todd

Jason H said...

Have you guys read the wording for the WSW East of Memphis. "8 plus inches" Someone 50-75 miles due East of Mmephis is going to get hammered.7-12 of HEAVY,half dollar size,wet flakes. Maybe even a clap of thunder or two. Have fun Snowbirdbob!!!

tboyce1979 said...

I am so jealous if someone else gets Thundersnow!! I sure hope next week turns out. I would LOVE to have snow on the ground for my daughters Winter Wonderland Themed Birthday party Friday night!!

biminibutterly said...

what's a mammatus cloud? I sure would like to see a flurry today and really hope we can get one more good snow this year 5+ inches??? Can you make that happen fellas? Pretty Please??