Wednesday, February 02, 2011

Winter Blast To Swing Into Spring?

9 PM Wednesday Update... Well the models are throwing more curve balls at us.  The Friday system looks very minor at this point as the only model showing any real moisture is the UKMET.  I'll keep watching this, but don't get excited.  The models are also showing a weak wave on Sunday with small chances for rain and snow.  The Euro now shows a good snow maker next Wednesday across the state.  This model has also backed off on the late week warm up, but the GFS has it.  The bottom line, the long range is a fairly low confidence forecast.  I'll have a complete update Thursday morning.

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From the highest of highs (Saturday and 77 degrees) to the lowest of lows (single digits and teens), this winter blast will last, but could swing to spring.

I don't want to get too ahead here because there will be a ton of weather to track over the next week to 10 days. I have several graphics at the end of this post which explains everything you will read below.  First of all, I have updated the winter contest numbers.  Just click on it in the white bar above.  How's this for a statistic??? Despite the winter storm Tuesday, Pine Bluff has STILL had more snow this season than Harrison.  Also, Little Rock is winning the winter right now with more snow than any other official station I can find in the state.  If someone can prove me wrong, please let me know.

This arctic blast means business.  We went below freezing in Little Rock at 3 PM Tuesday and may not get above it until Friday.  I am not optimistic about breaking the 15 year streak in Little Rock without any single digit temperatures.  A few clouds and some winds should keep Little Rock in the teens for lows Thursday morning.  I have talked about air traveling over the fresh snow pack to the north chilling our air even further.  Some even speculate this will be enough to send Little Rock below 10 degrees.  While Mother Nature has the final say, I will hold onto my theory that we MUST have clear skies, no wind, and snow cover.  On Monday's edition of "Arkansas Weather Live", Snowbirdbob said we would drop to 8, WeatherClipper said 9, WeatherNinja 12, and I said 11.  I think we are all too cold.  It will probably be around 13-17 degrees Thursday AM.

Next item of business, the snow chances Friday.  A vigorous low will spin over Texas and move towards the state.  When you look at the presentation of the low, you would think it would have the ability to develop a significant storm, but probably not here.  The air will be very dry and cold across the state which will limit anything from this system.  Right now, it's likely we will see some light snow with it, but nothing too significant.  It's worth noting that the JMA is bullish on precipitation amounts, but that model usually overdoes things.

Now onto next Monday and Tuesday.  Is it DeJa Vu all over again?  When I looked at the 12Z Euro yesterday for next Tuesday, it looked just like the storm currently affecting the central United States... surface low coming out of Texas with a 1052 mb high dropping out of Canada.  The overnight run of the Euro is much weaker, but now the GFS is stronger with the system.  It looks like the models are trying to develop a system which probably won't be as intense as Tuesday's storm, but could cause more trouble for someone in the mid south.  It's way too early to speculate, but I WILL WATCH IT FOR SURE!  The models area also having some timing issues with this system.

This storm will be followed by one LAST cold blast.  The European, GFS, and Canadian insist the cold arctic high will shift east by the very end of next week developing a strong southwesterly flow at the surface.  IF this develops, we would easily bring temperatures into the 60s and 70s again.  How long will that last?   Tough to say.  Will it be a brief warm up, or a sign of spring, or will it even happen at all?  It's in the long term so this can always change.

Check out all the graphics below and thanks for reading the Arkansas Weather Blog!

Strong 500 mb low in TX Friday morning

NAM Friday AM showing precip. getting into southern AR.  540 line running from Texarkana to Blytheville
Tuesday's 12Z Euro valid next Tuesday.  Looks like a repeat of the big storm.  There's a surface low over the Arklatex with another extremely strong high coming out of Canada.  The 540 line runs through NW Arkansas.
The overnight run of the Euro.  Not as strong with it, but still there for next SUNDAY... timing issues.
00Z GFS shows significant wintry weather across the northern half of the state next Monday
Euro for Friday Feb. 11th.  Strong arctic high moving away with a low developing along the Canadian border.  Notice the isobars (black lines) are tightly packed and running from southwest to northeast.  The 540 line is getting out of here.  BIG WARM UP if this happens!!!!!!

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

The sun is shining...and its snowing. Weird!!

Anonymous said...

Even if it dont accumalate it b nice to c some snow in the air next week if it happens. If it does happen it will prob be a changeover situation from rain an us in cen ark seem to never fair well in those situations dry slot,.etc etc

jimmylee42 said...

I see that the NWS said that we were only 1 degree colder than average for January. I still think that the winters of 2011-12 and 2013-14 will be the coldest of the next six winters including this one. I will go out on a limb very early and say one of those two will produce a record snow for central Arkansas. Either biggest snow event or season record. Also, one of those two seasons will have a low of below zero for LR at the airport.

David said...

Hi Todd, I just found this blog and it looks great! There has also been streaming video of the blizzard on chaserTV.com if you'd like to check it out. Thanks!

Weatherclipper said...

If we had not had the 76F over the weekend the departure from normal would have been a little more significant.

Snowbird Bob said...

Hello Everyone, This is to CumulosMaximus, Sorry about the LSU gear lol..I didnt even know I was getting interviewed & a picture taken,Really I didnt know..Oh, & About the massive dry slot, Its very hard to predict those sometime...There are still chances of winter precip in the near future 3-10 days, Its going to be tough forecasting in this pattern..Yes, I admit it, I missed this one, But I have been saying for 3 weeks now Watch Out for some of the coldest air of the season & a poss major winter storm, I did get the Dallas to OKC,but instead to Little Rock it was to Fayetteville, I also said that parts of the southern US could see there coldest temps since Feb.1996 This looks to be the case for parts of Texas,OK & Parts of Northern Ark..I do think with this current pattern,Somewhere in Ark will get a good winter storm before we break this pattern...Thanks for everyones support, I know I miss the forecast sometime, but no one is perfect, I just get right back up & go at it again,, Its my passion..I know many may not want to hear this but I do think warmer weather is in store for us by the Middle & later part of Feb. But, That is not to say you still cant get major snow events up until March...We Shall See :)

jimmylee42 said...

Will Dallas set an all time low for Feb tomorrow? The record is 7 and their forecast to go down to 4 degrees.

jdwalk said...

Maybe south Arkansas can get one more snow before the warm up!!

Anonymous said...

I don't need another snowstorm right now! My family and I are moving to South Carolina on Sunday/Monday! Please no more ice/snow!! Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Hello everyone. I love the blog and follow it daily. Looks like the El Dorado area is going to miss out again. North La. and extreme SE AR are under a Winter Storm Watch. I've heard of David Bazzle and the "Bazzle bubble". What, does he have a twin down here or something living in the El Dorado area? Good grief. Please Please Please we want snow 3 miles South of El Dorado and lots of it. I haven't even seen a dusting this year, only sleet Thanks :)

Anonymous said...

It's funny how you all talk to each other, but no one answers anyone else. It's like talking out loud in an empty room...