Thursday, February 03, 2011

Winter Not Leaving Without A Fight

9:45 PM Thursday Update... We have been warning you about this system since early in the week when we noticed a vigorous low spinning in Texas, but the models didn't want to crank out much in the way of precipitation.  Well, the new NAM is out and it's showing Little Rock receiving around .26'' of water which equates to about 3 inches of snow Friday.  If you apply the Cobb algorithm, it shows 2.4 inches.  This one model indicates temperatures once again not getting out of the 20s for highs Friday. Over the past couple of days, the GFS has shown little if any snowfall, but tonight it's changing its tune a little bit.  While not as enthusiastic about snow amounts, it does indicate flakes flying  across much of the state.  An early look at the model shows 1'' or less for much of central Arkansas.  Sometimes, when they disagree like this, the best course of action is to compromise between the two.  If you look further down on the blog, you will see the early Thursday run of our exclusive futurecast.  Also below are the NAM and GFS outlooks for snow from this evenings run.  I'll keep you updated Friday here and of course on twitter.  Thanks for reading the Arkansas Weather Blog... Your Ticket To BIG Weather Events.

00Z GFS snow depth indicates generally 1'' or less.  The big amounts of snow in NE Oklahoma is the current snow on the ground from Tuesday's storm.


The 00Z NAM indicating 2-4'' across much of central and southern Arkansas Friday.  This could be a little overdone.  Something to watch though.

12:20 PM Thursday Update... I don't think we'll get out of the 20s today in central Arkansas with all these clouds around.  The arctic express isn't going anywhere fast.  There are some uncertainties about Friday due to the GFS model not showing much in the way of snowfall while the NAM brings in a few inches across the Southeast.  To throw another curve ball, our exclusive "futurecast" model from its 12Z run (6am) now shows accumulating snow across much of the state. What makes this interesting is the fact this model is based off the GFS initialization.  As for the Wednesday system next week, all the major long range models are on board with the storm.  I stress, don't look at specifics because they will change with each and every model run.  But we'll be watching it for sure.  Below is the 12Z Futurecast model...

Exclusive 12Z Futurecast model
As we thought, clouds and wind held temperatures up last night in the Little Rock area.  For the first time this winter, temperatures did go below zero for some portions of the Natural State.  For instance, Fayetteville dropped to -5 and there's an unofficial report Cave Springs dropped to -4.4 degrees.  More low temperatures will be reported later this morning by the National Weather Service.

The models continue to struggle sorting out all the details over the next week, but the picture is becoming a little bit more clear.  The weak system coming through Friday is moisture starved, BUT the Euro is putting out .03'' of water.  This will be in the form of light snow and flurries and it will not amount to much at all.  The bulk of the moisture should stay well south and east of Arkansas where a rare snow/ice event is shaping up for south Texas into Louisiana... have fun Snowbirdbob!

A weak wave of moisture may affect the state Sunday, but the models are keying in on something next Tuesday into Wednesday.

The GFS is suppressing it to the south, but the Euro is bringing it north.  I still feel good about a BIG warm up by the following weekend into the next week.  This is of course in the long range so things will more than likely change again.

Check out the maps below...

Channel 7's exclusive "Futurecast" showing some south Arkansas snow possible Friday

The 00Z Euro indicates low pressure developing in the northern Gulf next Wednesday.  The colors indicate the 850mb temperatures well below freezing.  This model suggests that if anything falls, it's ALL snow.

This is the GFS valid next Wednesday morning.  It shows the low forming in the Gulf of Mexico with substantial moisture for north Texas moving into Arkansas.  The freezing line at the surface is well south of the state (blue line).  This would lead to mostly snow as well.

14 comments:

WXBach said...

shreveport wx services says 1-2 inches tonight and 1-3 inches tomorrow does that mean they expect 2-5 inches total or is their forecast for tomorrow reflecting total snow?

raishaw said...

It's snowing in Pine Bluff. :-)

tboyce1979 said...

I almost hope the futurecast is right...

WeatherNinja said...

Todd..both you and Guru..will owe me if the system verifies next week as this is the system the GFS had earlier this week (268hr) that you said had an 0.05632841 chance of hitting. Just sayin...

raishaw said...

Okay, after reading the twitter comments I'll just say "something frozen" fell here. It wasn't a lot and it didn't last long, but it did fall. lol It was round whatever it was

jimmylee42 said...

Todd-

I've been grappling with this "Grauple" situation. My brother reported to me that he saw it on his ice covered driveway a little while ago. It definitely was snow pellets. He is located in the Hall High area of LR.

Mitchell McDill said...

Todd, it might top out at 25 here in Hot Springs today. I can't remember that cold of a high temperature in many years- maybe over a decade. This is pretty impressive stuff we got going.

Aaron said...

Its been spitting snow and sleet all day here in Starkville, MS.

jimmylee42 said...

Just saw where Yellowknife Canada and LR had the same temp of 23 degrees a couple of hours ago. They were about 30 degrees above normal at that time and we were 30 degrees below normal. There normal high for Feb 3rd is -7. Believe it or not Baker Lake, Canada's average high for today is -21 F. They also have had some extreme swings this winter because of the great oscillation of the atmosphere and lifting and diving of the jet stream.

Shack said...

Ok, going to type on a computer rather than my phone on Twitter, that way I have a better chance of expressing my thoughts in a manner in which is comprehendible. :)

Could you explain on the blog (if you see fit) the type of snow we got today ("Dippin' Dots", thanks Chad!) you were discussing on twitter vs the type of snow that someone mentioned that I think started with a g?

Thanks

Shack

WeatherNinja said...

After looking at both the GFS and Euro all I can say is if these come close to verifying..this will be a big snowmaker for the state and could rival the Jan 2000 snow and even the Jan 1988.

It's early and don't want to get too excited about it but next Tuesday and Wednesday will need to be watched very closely.

More tomorrow....in the meantime, we will have to deal with a little wintery precip Friday and maybe Sunday night in the north.

All indications are a warm up after Feb 14th.

I'll have a blog post Friday on the upcoming storm.

Ninja

Sheri B said...

From Lake Village in Chicot County: Freezing rain began at about 2 a.m. this morning. A thin sheet of ice has covered everything.

Anonymous said...

Wooohooo snow finally in El Dorado!!! And, it's sticking :)

Anonymous said...

Happy Weather Man Appreciation Day Todd, you do an awesome job. Enjoy your day!