Sunday, September 11, 2011

Snowbirdbob's Winter Forecast

Snowbirdbob is going out on a limb.  He wants me to post his winter forecast for 2011-2012 here.  Enjoy the read and let's see how he does.

His forecast is NOT the official forecast of Channel 7.
________________________________________________________________________________


Hello Everyone, I am going to give you my 2011/2012 Winter Weather Outlook.

1.Don't stock up on firewood based off of my forecast.
2. Don't count on your electric bill being high.
3.Don't blame me at your location if you receive a major ice storm or don't get any snow..lol
4. This is my long-range forecast & I am sticking to it no matter the outcome.
5. My forecast last year turned out great. I was a month off on the central & southern sections of Arkansas getting there turn for big winter weather events, but boy did they get hammered..

November 2011 I see near normal temps in Central & Southern Sections,& slightly below normal for northern sections. As far as precip, I see above normal precip for central & southern sections & near normal for northern sections.  I would look for some late November ice in northern sections of the state, which could effect areas as far south as the Conway, Russellville, & Searcy, but nothing major.

December 2011 I am calling out this month for a major Arctic Outbreak in the Dec. 16-31. I see near normal temps. for the entire state Dec.1-15. I'm also calling this month out for major winter weather events Dec.16-31... well-below average temps. for the entire state. and a big Dec. Ice for central & southern sections. As Weather Ninja says..Ice..Ice Baby.  For you in northern Arkansas, A couple  minor snow events, but not your turn YET!!

Jan.2012...  Jan.1-15 I see well-below normal temps. for the entire state.  Jan.16-31 temps. rebound to near normal. Northern Arkansas, watch out this year..It's your time agian for big snow events.

Feb.2012... This is the month for all sorts of suprises.. below normal temperatures for the entire state.  Look out again central & southern sections for a big February ice and a couple big snow events for northern sections..

DECEMBER 2011... 15-31..major cold outbreaks. Lingering low level cold air could lead to major ice..
Hopefully all snow!!

As Always..We Shall See??!!

15 comments:

mohunnybear68 said...

ok...but I hope you are wrong!! lol

SNOWBIRDBOB said...

Hello Everyone, That outlook is just an Outlook...I based that off of many different idea's.

Dont let that Outlook, Keep you from getting exciting about this upcoming winter for the Central Sections..The Climate Predcition Center is forecasting a stronger La Nina as we head deeper into the fall & winter..You all know what happened last winter for the Central Sections..SNOW,SNOW,& More SNOW!!....One thing we all know Mother Nature has the last say!! I look forward to bring you all coverage from all over the south this upcoming Winter, Mainly in Arkansas..

Snowenthusiast said...

Great work, Snowbird!

I hope that if you are right that you are wrong about all of the ice. Let's hope for the best (snow) this winter.

Anonymous said...

I am confused as December 2011 is on there twice.

JasonBHampton said...

Enojoyed the read! Hopefully your right on the money with the Northern Arkansas big snows!

Just for fun Ill say 2 big snow events for Arkasnas and 1 Severe outbreak 1st the outbreak around Feb 8-10...Now the Winter Weather-1st one will be a surpise storm the day before Thanksgiving. The next will be Jan 14-18 time.

Ill go with a nasty Ice Storm for the Little area around the Dec 27th-29th, while the North has a nice 8-12 inches of snow.

I also say Winter will be normal temps Nov-Jan with much above normal temps Feb and March with lots Severe Weatehr.

Looking forward to it!

tboyce1979 said...

Alright, lets get this party started! I love the predicitions! SnowBob, you are always on top of it and I LOVE your predicitions. But I know they are just predicitons. And JasonBHampton, let's hold off on the winter event around Thanksgiving. I'm hoping to be moving that weekend and I don't need ANY disruptions! Now where are Ninja, Clipper, Guru and Fanatic?! I can't wait to hear your thoughts as well :)

SNOWBIRDBOB said...

This to Anonymous..I am confused as December 2011 is on there twice.

I am just calling out that month for the Major Weather Events..Such as Major Cold Outbreaks & Major Winter Weather Events..

WinterLover said...

Hi SNOWBIRDBOB , I really like your winter outlook. Me and my family were wondering if you expect any big snow events like we saw last winter season here in central Arkansas. If so, based on your gut feeling, how many do you think we will have? And how significant do you expect them to be? And can we have a first-snow prediction?
- WinterLover

Omarr Wilson said...

Snowbirdbob You Might be on to Something. I def think there's a Good chance for some major Ice somewhere in the State. I dought we get much White stuff. But if that Verify in which anything is possible. But This will be A Bad winter bc Ice is Much more dangerous than snow. But Ice is more interesting though.

AmyB said...

BRING IT ON!! Thanks Snowbird.....I'm ready to start thinking about cold air and snow!! Ice.....not so much! I lived in Texarkana during the Ice Storm of 2000 and I hope to never go through something like that again!! I'm hearing that the cool air on the way this week could make the record books in the plains for its early arrival, so it looks like fall and winter are truly on the way and could prove to be interesting, no doubt!! Thanks for keeping things interesting on the blog! I'm dreaming of a WHITE CHRISTMAS!!

SNOWBIRDBOB said...

Hello Everyone, Thank you all for enjoying reading my post..

This is For Winterlover..You really want me to go waaaayy Out on the limb..lol..Ok, The worst thing that can happen is I am wrong..lol..Do I think Central Sections see any Big Snow Events, This winter..Maybe one in Early Jan...& Making the first snow predictions..lol..Ok. Let me look into my Snowbirdbob's Sweet Spot Crystal Ball...The first time the Central Section will have there ground coated with the white stuff..I say Jan.5-10..These predictions here are just gut feelings & pure guesses..lol..HOPE FOR SNOW!!

Thanks SnowLover..

Anonymous said...

My forecast models show severe storms in mid october till almost the end of December. Lets just hope we dont have a repeat new year's eve tornadoes that northern arknasas had last year. But the percipitation for ice or snow for months JAN and Feb. might be hard figure out since most models show low percipitation for arkansas till late Feb. and that is usually when winter is humid for us.

WinterLover said...

SNOWBIRDBOB,
Haha. Yes, I love to think way ahead! Anything to put in my mind is better than nothing! I hope your right about a Big Snow Event, except for the 1 part. I'm really hoping for a winter similar to last years.
How do you think they will compare as far as snowfall, ice, temperature, and just plain over-all? Haha really sorry for all the questions! I've just really taken an interest in weather recently. :)
-- WinterLover

Jason H said...

Snowbirdbob you have a crystal ball!?!? I just put my first snow dates up on a wall and flick boogers at them and where they land I go with that date. It works great! J/K....I think we all need to put some money on the firt snow dates around the state?:-)

Anonymous said...

Hoping we get lots of ice & snow. I just love to walk out in 35 degree overcast weather in short sleeves. :)