7:20 AM Wednesday Update... The model wars continue, but as I expected, the European has backed off of its extreme solution. It still shows a very significant push of cold air and the Canadian does as well. The GFS still does not show much amplification with the jet stream, thus the trough is weaker and further to the northeast allowing only a glancing shot of "cool" air. My gut tells me it will be much colder than the GFS is indicating. Let's see how well or how bad the model performs. Its temperature high for Little Rock next Monday is 52 degrees and Tuesday is 54 degrees. I have a strong feeling we will be in the 30s for highs... maybe lower 40s.
At this point, I don't think the cold will stick around long. This should be a quick hit with moderating temperatures a couple days later. Remember, my disclaimer at the bottom of the blog. This is NOT the official forecast of Channel 7. We'll see what happens.
Also, we're having a little fun on the right side of the blog with a new poll. As you know, Snowbirdbob really puts himself out there, which I respect. But he also made a very bold statement that he would do the polar bear plunge if there wasn't a winter storm warning issued in Arkansas December 20th-25th. That didn't happen. As of today, I still don't have the video proof. Should he make good on his promise? Vote now on the right side of the blog. Once I have the video, YOU WILL SEE IT HERE!!! Good luck snowbirdbob :)
Boy oh boy do we have a war with the weather modeling next week! It's the GFS (American model) against the rest of the world. These are not small differences, they are HUGE and will have a major impact on our weather. The GFS has been very ho-hum (official meteorological phrase) about a trough and associated cold front swinging through the central and eastern portions of the country. The GFS numbers show a high temperature in Little Rock in the mid 50s next Monday and Tuesday. It would take the bulk of the cold air to the northeast in a rapid in and out way. The European and the Canadian are onto something completely opposite. They both dig a massive central and eastern trough which would no doubt bring the coldest air so far this winter season. The European is the most extreme out of those two with a strong upper level storm system in the area which would have the ability to squeeze some moisture out in the form of snow flurries or showers. Another important point to remember, there's a tremendous lack of snow cover to the north which may help modify the air on its southward push. If there was snow cover north of Arkansas, I would be even more concerned with extreme cold if the Euro were to verify.
So which one is correct? Long range forecaster Joe Bastardi with weatherbell.com sent out a tweet today recognizing the differences. Here's his tweet... "GFS is too far east on trf I believe the major trough buckling and a storm in east next week, but less than the ballistic blizzard on euro."
I tend to believe what he's getting at here. Neither model will get this right. It will be somewhere in the middle. I think we will be decidedly colder to open up the New Year. I want to caution you, this is MANY days away and can change. We're dealing with erratic modeling this winter so stay tuned on facebook: Todd Yakoubian and twitter @katv_weather.
Here are a few model maps below.
|Here is the Canadian model during the same time period. It shows the cold air as well, but not to the extreme as the Euro. The Appalachians are getting a big snow out of this as low pressure rolls up the east coast. Here, it's just cold and dry!|