Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Weekend Wetness or Something Else?

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN
TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

I want to make it very clear, based on the latest run of the North American Model, we will have a cold rain Saturday.  With that said, this is the type of system which MUST be watched carefully and I'll explain.  The models have been consistent with a strong area of low pressure pulling out of the southwestern United States.  All of the data has been showing the moisture staying south of the state for the most part this weekend.  I have been very skeptical of the far southern track and the NAM confirms my suspicions.  Theoretically, this is the perfect set up for wintry weather in Arkansas.  It's a great track for the 500 mb low and surface low just south of the state.  HOWEVER, there appears to be cold air lacking!!!!  It's Wednesday and this could still change.  I DO NOT want to create excitement over this, but show you what I'm looking at and what I'm keeping an eye on for you!

THIS IS ALL BASED OFF OF ONE MODEL.  THERE ARE OTHERS WHICH DON'T SHOW ANYTHING.  IN THE WORDS OF SNOWBIRDBOB, "WE SHALL SEE"

This is the forecast sounding from the NAM late Saturday.  This looks at the ground upward over Little Rock.  The black arrow going upward is the freezing line.  The red line is the forecast temperature from the model.  Notice the entire profile is at or below freezing EXCEPT the lowest levels.  COLD RAIN!
A compact area of low pressure aloft is located over east Texas.  This area of strong lift CAN have the ability to cool a column of air and produce its own cold air.  Sometimes along and just north of the track, some snow can fall.  We'll see.
At 850 mb (5000'), temperatures are all at or below freezing for the northwestern 2/3 of Arkansas.
The surface low is in southern Louisiana.  Notice the crucial 540 line is north of the state.  This is a good indicator of the rain/snow line.  Again, not ideal for frozen precipitation.  However, what if colder air gets more involved with the system?  Only time will tell.  The areas of blue show good rain amounts coming out of Texas into Arkansas.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Todd, I would appreciate your comments on the dieing LaNina. What effect if any on our severe weather season.

Anonymous said...

And here we have Snowbirdbob tweeting about a "full blown Snow Event"...

SnowbirdBob said...

Never said that..lol..I said a Possible Snow Event..Keep your hopes alive, Mother Nature May be saving the Best for last!!..Oh, I do think we still have our Coldest Temps of this Winter in front of us..I have said this all along, Arctic Blast Watch..Feb.12-28..
We Shall See :)

Anonymous said...

Lets see there is a low pressure system system taking the perfect track for a good ol fashion arkansas snowstorm this sat nite. BUT WAIT! Theres only one problem. LACKING COLD AIR!!!!!! . Hmmmmmmm does this sound familiar? Guys its been this way all winter. NOTHING IS GOING TO CHANGE. Most of us have turned the page to spring. Mother nature is not on us snowlovers side this year. She spoiled us last year and she said its not going to snow this year. I know there are some people who want severe weather because it gives them something to do plus it gives them a rush. Im not one of those people if it wont snow then might as well have sunny mild temps.