I want to make it very clear, based on the latest run of the North American Model, we will have a cold rain Saturday. With that said, this is the type of system which MUST be watched carefully and I'll explain. The models have been consistent with a strong area of low pressure pulling out of the southwestern United States. All of the data has been showing the moisture staying south of the state for the most part this weekend. I have been very skeptical of the far southern track and the NAM confirms my suspicions. Theoretically, this is the perfect set up for wintry weather in Arkansas. It's a great track for the 500 mb low and surface low just south of the state. HOWEVER, there appears to be cold air lacking!!!! It's Wednesday and this could still change. I DO NOT want to create excitement over this, but show you what I'm looking at and what I'm keeping an eye on for you!
THIS IS ALL BASED OFF OF ONE MODEL. THERE ARE OTHERS WHICH DON'T SHOW ANYTHING. IN THE WORDS OF SNOWBIRDBOB, "WE SHALL SEE"
|A compact area of low pressure aloft is located over east Texas. This area of strong lift CAN have the ability to cool a column of air and produce its own cold air. Sometimes along and just north of the track, some snow can fall. We'll see.|
|At 850 mb (5000'), temperatures are all at or below freezing for the northwestern 2/3 of Arkansas.|