tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16914987.post3890521165418907228..comments2023-03-12T03:56:00.991-05:00Comments on Arkansas Weather Blog: Winter Storm Looking LikelyUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16914987.post-37561609484851513672013-12-03T10:46:29.012-06:002013-12-03T10:46:29.012-06:00I'm new to the blog and really appreciate the ...I'm new to the blog and really appreciate the data and explanations associated with it. I too am a native of Arkansas and have always been weather keen, to the point of taking several courses in meteorology and oceanography. I first learned to analyze map data from school studies and from this lay-mans standpoint, I think you are spot on and I also agree on the possibility of colder temps. Regardless, it will be interesting! I'm stocking up on generator fuel and chili makings, bread and milk go without saying. Thanks again for this valuable forecasting tool.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03109854509478433468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16914987.post-74967116153862063162013-12-03T10:45:40.212-06:002013-12-03T10:45:40.212-06:00I'm new to the blog and really appreciate the ...I'm new to the blog and really appreciate the data and explanations associated with it. I too am a native of Arkansas and have always been weather keen, to the point of taking several courses in meteorology and oceanography. I first learned to analyze map data from school studies and from this lay-mans standpoint, I think you are spot on and I also agree on the possibility of colder temps. Regardless, it will be interesting! I'm stocking up on generator fuel and chili makings, bread and milk go without saying. Thanks again for this valuable forecasting tool.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03109854509478433468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16914987.post-2039076953125196512013-12-02T15:44:26.861-06:002013-12-02T15:44:26.861-06:00Congrats to Will (just like last year's Christ...Congrats to Will (just like last year's Christmas storm) for being the first to mention this on the blog. It's great that Todd allows others to mention the possibilities and then either verifies or dismisses them with his in depth detail and analysis.Gustynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16914987.post-7923747560752955692013-12-02T09:20:08.733-06:002013-12-02T09:20:08.733-06:00Part 2: Remember, the website is meteocentre.com/m...Part 2: Remember, the website is meteocentre.com/models/gfs if you got lost from my last post. If you want to see more of the state of Arkansas in a map (all be it small) just go to NWP models on the top again and again click on GFS. Go down to the bottom and click on Accumulation-Types. It should start out as snow over North America. As I said earlier, I would strongly urge you to use the 0z (Midnight) or 12z (Noon) runs since they have weather balloon soundings. On top it will say the beginning hour and then to the right the ending hour. On the right ending hour click on the down arrow and 240h will be above it which means 240 hours or 10 days so click on that then click go. To change the precipitation type click on type near the top then click on freezing rain or ice pellets (sleet) and on the right once again the precipitation will be measured in millimeters. To convert to inches just use your calculator and go with how many millimeters you see over your area times .04 (roughly) and you’ll have your snow/freezing rain/sleet in inches. Finally, if you want to see what the Canadian model thinks then just click over on model on the left side of the page and click GEM-GLB. It should still be at 240 hours so you can compare the snow/freezing rain/sleet that the American GFS has VS the Canadian GEM model. I’m sure Todd will continue showing you the ECMWF (Euro) model since he has permission to so please watch his the closest since the best model in the business, the Euro, will be on there. Once again, please stay tuned to what Todd, The weatherninja Michael Hook, the rest of the TV weather teams across your viewing area and your local National Weather Service Office for more information on this upcoming winter storm. Thanks for reading and stay safe! <br />Cody Renonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16914987.post-67042099257971254632013-12-02T09:14:37.592-06:002013-12-02T09:14:37.592-06:00Hey Todd,
I really appreciate all the weather data...Hey Todd,<br />I really appreciate all the weather data you guys put out for Arkansas. Seeing as this can be in only 4,096 characters I will split this message in half. Thought I might throw in a little help for people wondering what’s going to happen in the future via rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow totals. I’ll make it as simple as I can. Go to http://meteocentre.com/models/. Move your mouse over NWP models and for this example click on GFS. Then scroll down to meteograms-Prec and click on the checkmark. It should come up as Montreal, Canada. Click on the blue where it says USA then New York City should pop up. Click on the little arrow by New York City and 8 cities above should be Little Rock, Arkansas. This is the only station for the state so sorry about that. It should then show Rain Accum, Snow Accum, Ice Pellets (Sleet) Accum, and Freezing Rain Accum. All of this is measured in millimeters so to measure in inches just use your calculator and go with how many millimeters times .04 (roughly). There you will get your inches. The millimeters are on the left part and the dates are on the bottom of each graph (for example Dec06 is measured as December 6th 0z or in our time during standard daylight time it’s December 5th at 6 PM (Go back 6 hours in the winter months, 5 hours with daylight savings time.) Back up near the top of the page you will see where it says latest and that’s the latest model run. I would suggest using the 0z (Midnight) or the 12z (Noon) run as they have weather balloon soundings. To the right of that is precipitation. Click on that and standard should come up so click on that. This will show the Mean Sea Level Pressure. The one below that shows the Thickness pressure in which you always want to watch below the 540 line because it will usually be freezing precipitation. Below that is the 2m Temperature and Dew Point in Celsius. It should show on the left temperatures a little above 10 degrees Celsius which is 50 degrees Fahrenheit and temperatures near or below -10 degrees Celsius which is 14 degrees Fahrenheit. 0 degrees Celsius is 32 degrees Fahrenheit so that is what you should be looking for on the map. Below that is 850-hPA temperatures which is about 5000 feet up but unless you’re really into meteorology just ignore that one. The Precip. Accum. Is just a smaller and less detailed version of what the GFS thinks is going to happen. The Total Cloud Fraction pretty much speaks for itself in terms of the amount of clouds there will be in the sky according to the GFS. The 10m Wind Speed and Gusts are in kilometer per hour and 10 meters is over 32 feet high. To convert from Kilometer to MPH just use your calculator and go with how many Kilometer Per Hour times roughly .62 and you have your wind in miles per hour. Unless you’re really into meteorology don’t worry about the bottom 10 m Wind Barbs (Knots) because it’s basically showing you the wind direction and speed based on the notches on the bars. The next message will have instructions for the rest of Arkansas.Cody Renonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16914987.post-47603051988090912772013-12-02T07:17:49.617-06:002013-12-02T07:17:49.617-06:00I love this post--I don't like watching videos...I love this post--I don't like watching videos so I really appreciate the pictures and explanations! Super interesting!Ti Lawhonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04955820998069473713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16914987.post-44620899342519845002013-12-02T06:29:28.048-06:002013-12-02T06:29:28.048-06:00I've been watching this system since Thanksgiv...I've been watching this system since Thanksgiving Day, thinking please verify. The models just might have it! The GEM and GFS are dancing around each other, but now the GFS is looking more and more like the Euro. Just need the NAM to keep the forecasts conservative LOL.JBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05792467953889763152noreply@blogger.com