Weather Center

Monday, November 01, 2010

STRONG Cool Front

9 PM Wednesday Update... Hope everyone is doing well.  Just a quick note for you this evening.  There will be a new blog post Thursday afternoon.  I will have an interview with National Weather Service Meteorologist John Robinson and I have several questions to ask him pertaining to the "Great Hail Hunt", spotter training, fall severe weather, winter weather, and the 2009 rainfall record in Leola, Arkansas.

The two major short term models are predicting a low temperature Saturday morning of 31 and 38 degrees.   I still think we will have the opportunity to hit 32 in central Arkansas for the first time this season.  Also on the table, a very active weather pattern for the middle to end of November.  I talked to WeatherNinja today and we both agree... the first "Arkansas Weather Live" may be very,very soon.  Stay tuned!
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2 PM Tuesday Update... "Snowbird Bob" is making a VERY BOLD prediction in the comment section.  Read and share your thoughts.

I have an App. I would like to recommend for your phone.  WeatherNinja told me about it so I downloaded it soon after getting the iPhone4.  It's called "RadarScope".  It's $9.99, but worth it if you're a weather nut!  You get nice level 3 imagery all over the country along with several different radar products including storm relative velocities.  You also get warnings!
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8 AM Tuesday Update... There's a question in the comment section asking why we decided to use North Little Rock instead of Little Rock in the contest.  Two reasons: the elevation of the North Little Rock airport adds a "degree" of difficulty (pun intended) and we used Little Rock last year so it's something different.  Thanks for the comments on the costume.  If you have any ideas for next year, let me know!

Halloween edition of Saturday Daybreak
The Halloween edition of Saturday Daybreak was a classic.  Each year my costume has a weather theme and this year I decided to go as a "strong cool front".  I found the muscles at a local Halloween store (not at the gym) and then I cut two cold fronts out of blue cardboard.  With the sunglasses and spiked hair, I became "cool".  Anyway, I have had a ton of great response from you and our viewers and I want to thank you.  It was a blast. Blake even made an appearance as Superman and it looks like he loves the camera!

Some of you may already know this, but I now have an iPhone 4.  For years, I refused to trade in my simple flip phone for something more modern.  Due to intense peer pressure (The WeatherNinja and WeatherClipper) I broke down last week.  I want to be able to blog, tweet, and connect with everyone wherever I am.  I have to admit, I'm already addicted to the thing.    There's a cool app I downloaded for Blake called "Talking Hippo".  It repeats everything you say in a funny voice and you can tickle him as well.


video

That "strong cool front" will arrive later this week with a blast of cold air.  As a matter of fact, I think it will be the coldest so far this season.  Little Rock and North Little Rock have not had freezing temperatures yet, but we'll get very close Saturday morning.  For Little Rock, the average first freeze is November 12th so it's just about on time.  The Monday morning run of the GFS indicates a low of 33 in Little Rock Saturday morning so freezing temperatures are definitely a possibility.  High temperatures Friday and Saturday may not get out of the 50s in central Arkansas with 40s north.  Getting to the chilly air will require a round of rain Tuesday, especially for southern Arkansas.  Even though this is on Election Day, it's very good news for this portion of the state.  The National Weather Service now indicates sections of the state now under a severe to EXTREME drought.
Red indicates EXTREME drought conditions.  Orange is severe.

The winter contest is now in full swing and it's getting a lot of talk on twitter.  It's a 5 month contest and it will be fun to follow.  There's a link to it in the white bar at the top of the page.  It's labeled "Winter Contest."




13 comments:

Anonymous said...

for this winter contest why north little rock for the snow an 32 degree lows if i remember correctly adams field had more snow last year then north little rocks airport,and as far as temperatures in north little rock is harder to get to 32 degrees then any other station in arkansas because the the temp is taken on a hill. i have a feeling there will be a few mornings little rock adams field will hit 32 degrees while north little rocks airport wont. just a thought thanks for letting me post my comments. great outfit todd best one yet.

Greg Reddin said...

Check out the Radarscope app for the iPhone. I'm sort of becoming a weather geek and I like the app a lot. It shows Level 3 NEXRAD data and warnings. It also has some connection to the Spotter network, but since I'm not a spotter I haven't looked at that much.

SNOWBIRD BOB said...

Hello Everyone, I am about to make a strong personal prediction here, I beleive that the state of Arkansas & much of the Southern Plains will see an arctic intrusion that we haven't experienced in many years for the latter half of November,That is for the time of year.Dec. Jan. & Feb is not included. Sometime in the period Nov.19-30,Could also be some quick hitting light snow or wintry mix... We Shall See.. Bob

Anonymous said...

Snowbird, funny you should say that. I personally know very little about weather other than that I LOVE it! An old high school teacher of mine predicts winter weather every year. He has never been more than a few days off and he predicts it 8 weeks out. He is predicting the same thing. I don't know how he does it but he is usually right.Let's hope so!

Anonymous said...

i noticed accuweather has started its wild swings in temps already, for mid november, i think little rock this year may be in for a 7 to 12 inch snowfall for the whole winter. plus about 2 freezing rain events.time will tell.

jimmylee42 said...

I checked some weather history for some facts about the winter of 62-63, which I think this winter might mirror. Not only did it have three Arctic outbreaks in January that brought single digit temps, there was also one in early December that had a single digit low and one day with a high in the teens. 48 years ago, it hits my little 6 year cycle pattern with this winter. It doesn't always work out, but enough that it is fun to follow. Still, the winters of 11/12 and 13/14 have the best chance of heavier than normal snow for us. I'm predicting 3.4 inches this winter.

The Weather Fanatic said...

Bob,

I couldn't agree more with you. I'm sitting at 49 degrees right now with a moderate rain falling. This is a very favorable pattern that we are currently in to see winter precip. I expect a similar type of scenario to unfold during the same time frame this month that you are predicting. I think that we both may be on to something. Does everyone remember the sleet bowl in Dallas on Thanksgiving back in the early 90's? It can happen here and this may just be the year it does. Someone will see accumulating sleet/snow in Arkansas this month. How much? Not a lot but enough to cover the ground. It doesn't take much, especially sleet.

The Weather Fanatic

Tam said...

Enough to close the college I work at for just a day or so would be a very nice break after Thanksgiving and before Christmas so I hope all you folks are right. For what it is worth my mother keeps saying it's going to "be a rough winter." She is sometimes right about these things...we do need to moisture though so I don't really care how it gets here just as long as my trees come back next spring. :)

jimmylee42 said...

More weather history that I find interesting, especially after reading Snowbird Bob's comment above. November 1980 had a 4 inch snow late in the month,and guess what, it is on the 6 year cycle of this winter being that it was 30 years ago. Don't know why I'm so obsessed with winter weather history, and Ninja the 4 inches was measured at the NLR station.

Anonymous said...

hey todd since u are not eligible to win the snow contest i was thinking u may go out on a limb for the total snow amount at the nlr airport. the way u see it we will have not enough snow to play in or do nothing. i would have atleast said 10 inches if i was the weatherman like u an made things very intresting. my kids are asking me why would he say just over an inch of snow why todd why. by the way very adorable kid u have that superman outfit is so so cute. very nice

Kaleb Turner said...

Nice costume! I love the picture of Blake watching you do the weather! I have a feeling that this winter season will be more ice than snow.... Not my favorite prediction ever....

I love my iPhone. I'm so glad you broke down and bought the iPhone. Now you can stream Ustream, update the blog, post pictures, post Twitter, post Facebook, and more! Have fun with it!

Skywatcher said...

I missed my chance to get in on the winter weather contest as I was in Mexico on my honeymoon. Kinda bummed that I missed out. I'll give my prediction anyway. LR sees 8 inches of snow/ice this year.

Anonymous said...

I am Praying for Winter weather to start going by next Friday! Don't want SVX! At All! I hate storms, but love me some cold! PRAY FOR SNOW! WOO! I believe that this winter will prolly surprise ya'll and we might have a repeat of last year!