Weather Center

Friday, March 25, 2011

Dear Computer Models, That's a CRUEL April Fools Joke!

Every now and then something has been showing up on the computer models right around April Fools Day and I have refused to blog about it... until now!

I'm NOT saying this is going to happen, but why not put it out there for everyone to see!  If you have followed Snowbirdbob on twitter, he has been talking about this for quite awhile.  The WeatherNinja has also talked about it.  I can't even bring myself to say it...............snow?

Yes, that's right, MOST of the ingredients are there according to the data, but one KEY ingredient is missing right now,  cold enough surface temperatures.  If this system came a month earlier, it would have the potential to produce a big snow for portions of the mid south, but now that we're going into April, we're really turning the corner to warmer weather.  No matter how you look at it, a very cold rain could greet us at the beginning of April and yes, we'll see if any flakes will fall.  If the system ends up trending to the north, then we'll have to talk about severe weather.  Here are a few computer models below.

This is the Euro valid March 31st at 7 PM.  It's 850 mb moisture and temperatures.  At about 5000 feet, the solid black line runs south of the entire state due to the effects of the cold core upper low.  The precipitation with this would be FROZEN, but surface temperatures could be well too warm to support it making it to the ground.  This would more than likely result in a cold rain with highs in the upper 30s and 40s.

This is the Canadian valid Sunday April 3rd at 7 AM.  Yes, the timing of this is in question.  This shows you the 500 mb low right on top of Louisiana and Arkansas.  This would be a big snow, IF we weren't so deep into spring at this time.  Again low level temperatures would be too warm to support frozen precip.
And this is the GFS valid April 1st at midnight showing the surface low in western Alabama.  The cold area of low pressure aloft is producing precipitation for most of Arkansas.  The blue line is the freezing line at 5000 feet and it's through most of western and central Arkansas.  A COLD rain, but could a few flakes reach the surface????

2 comments:

SNOWBIRD BOB said...

Hello Everyone, I didnt think I would have to post again about the possibilitys of Winter Weather until next fall..lol. Well, Here I go..There is starting to be more talk here & there about it..If the GFS,CANADIAN,DGEX, & Many of the Ensembles could talk, They would be telling us that mother nature could be pulling a rare snow event across parts TX,OK,AR,LA,MS,TN,KS, I have been talking about this for a couple of weeks now, but never really thought alot about it, There looks to be a cold upper low trailing the main surface low.moving across the Deep South around April fools day..I am agreeing with Todd, The surface temps could be a problem, But if this happens at night accumulations would be very possible, Places like Mt.Magizine & Rich Mt. could get dumped on..Late season snow are very rare for this time of year for our area,but not unheard of, So we will just have to wait & see..Still plenty of time..But going out on a limb here..lol. I do beleive that parts of Ark will see several inches of snow with this system...We Shall See..

Anonymous said...

I have my doubts on this possible winter storm. Its way to warm.