Friday, May 25, 2018

ArkanSauna 2018

If the computer models are correct, we'll challenge daily record highs later next week.  Both the GFS and the Euro show an upper level ridge expanding across much of the south central plains into Arkansas.  We'll be on the northeast side of that ridge.  The way it builds in, I expect the hottest temperatures over western and southwestern Arkansas.  The periphery of the ridge may see some shortwave energy and that means northeast Arkansas will not be as hot with a chance for a few showers and storms.  

Once again, according to the newest data, heat index temperatures could easily exceed 100 degrees.  The threshold for a heat advisory is 105 degrees.  I think it's possible for some of you to reach that.  This is a long range forecast and subject to change, but most of the data I have looked at supports this early summer heat wave.

The late Thursday version of the Euro.  It has actual air temperatures well above 100 degrees late next week . While that's possible, I am hesitant.  To reach 100, most of the soil moisture needs to be evaporated.  We could fall just short.  Regardless, heat index temps could exceed 100 easily.

The GFS echos the Euro with high heat later next week.
GFS forecast heat index temps next Friday look brutal.  Notice the NE corner not as bad since they will be on the edge of the upper ridge and may see a few storms.
Drought conditions are expanding and worsening south and west of the state.  It's across these areas which will have a better chance for hitting 100 degrees and higher since soil moisture is depleted. 
The upper ridge by Sunday June 3rd is centered west of the state.  This COULD open the door to a northwesterly wind flow aloft.  This will beat back the heat and allow disturbances to move across the state from the northwest to the southeast.  Scattered storms would be possible at that time. 

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Tropics Come To Life. Arkansas Impact?

I have been following the potential for any impact on our weather from a tropical system.  As mentioned in previous posts, whether it gets a name or not is pointless.  The big story with this will be torrential rainfall and even some severe weather in the form of tornadoes.

At this time, I do not think this will have a substantial impact on our weather.  Most of the data I have analyzed insists the bulk of the moisture will stay south and east of the state.  However, I would not be surprised to see some moisture get involved into the pattern and enhance rainfall chances across eastern Arkansas.  

Can this change?  Yes.  If it tracks further to the west, it would place Arkansas more under the influence of this system.  Further east, and we are drier.  If it affects our weather, it will be towards the middle of next week.

The low has yet to enter the Gulf of Mexico as of Thursday morning.  The National Hurricane Center gives it a 70% chance for development over the next 5 days. 
The Euro looks like the NAM and brings the system into the northern Gulf by Monday.  Expect rain to increase along and east of the track.
Euro rainfall amounts heaviest east of the Mississippi River.  If this changes, we'll update you. 

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Tropical Trouble For Arkansas?

It's too early to know how and if a developing area of low pressure will impact Arkansas weather.  However, there are a couple models showing that potential next week.  If you have vacation plans to the Gulf coast, you need to pay attention to the forecast

At this time, the National Hurricane Center gives it a 60% chance for development over the next 5 days.  Regardless of being named or not, the big story will be the potential for flooding rainfall especially east of the state.  There will also be the potential for tornadoes mainly east of the state and that's dependent upon the track of the low.  You do not want to be along or east of the path!  

The further west it tracks, the more tropical moisture will make its way into Arkansas.

The video goes over all the specifics with all the new model data.

ArkanSauna 2018