Thursday, April 12, 2018

Severe Weather Likely Friday PM

This storm system has been on our radar since last week and it continues to evolve.  We have increasing confidence severe weather will become likely Friday afternoon into the evening and a tornado watch will likely be issued for much of the state.  This storm system is very, very typical for Arkansas in spring.  Now is the time to prepare and know where you would go if a tornado warning is issued.

This video goes over the following...

  • timing
  • exact threats
  • possible rainfall amounts
  • our exclusive partnership with Live Storms Media
  • Arkansas Derby forecast
  • near record cold

Monday, April 09, 2018

Don't Be Scared, Be Prepared

I have a feeling by the end of this week, a few local meteorologists will be accused of hype.  I hope that's all it turns out to be, but when you see the modeling show this set-up for Friday, it would be meteorological malpractice not to raise awareness.

There really is nothing going on in the wide world of weather UNTIL late this week. So this has been, is, and will be the talk through Friday.  That might be why a few may perceive it as hype.  

Strong winds will begin to crank up Thursday into Friday with gusts possibly exceeding 30 mph.  The timing of the front is in question.  If it comes in at night, severe storms may not be as numerous compared to the daytime.  What about the exact threats?  At this time, it's impossible to know what will be the greatest threat.  However, I think all modes of severe weather including wind, hail, and tornadoes will be possible.

Remember what defines a severe thunderstorm.  ALL storms have rain, thunder, and lightning.  There are only 2 elements which make them severe and that's 1''+ diameter hail and/or winds of 58 mph or greater.   Even if a storm does not contain those 2 elements, it's dangerous since it contains lightning.  You know the saying, "when the thunder roars, get indoors."

Sometimes I get the feeling severe thunderstorms don't receive the attention they deserve compared to tornado warnings.  Last year alone, severe thunderstorm winds killed 3 Arkansans and injured 4.   Flash flooding killed 8 in Arkansas in 2017 and 2 were injured by lightning.  Yes, tornadoes are extremely dangerous, but always take severe thunderstorms seriously.   

As of today (Monday) the storms should exit the state early Saturday morning and that will pave the way for yet another near record breaking cold air mass.  Record lows will be challenged both Sunday and Monday morning of next week.  Don't plant yet, and if you have, be prepared to cover them up once again.

Most of Arkansas has at least some threat for severe thunderstorms Friday.

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Possible record lows Sunday and Monday morning.

Friday, April 06, 2018

SnowWay?

It's in the cards for Saturday morning!!!  A quick moving disturbance with cold air in place will create areas of light snow and sleet central and northern Arkansas.  Of course, there could also be some rainfall with this mixed in.  It should be mostly light rain south.

Winds will howl tonight as the cold air pours into the state.  Below, I have the timing of the precip, but first, here's an interesting fact.  There has never been more than a trace of snow in Little Rock during the month of April.  Records date back to the 1870s.  The National Weather Service counts sleet as snow, so remember that Saturday.   If there's any accumulations, IF, it would be light and mainly on grassy surfaces across northern Arkansas

Also, record lows each morning this weekend is 28°.  I don't think it's possible to reach it, but it's Arkansas.  Things like that happen.

Below is the 3KM NAM from WeatherBell.com  PLUS model accumulation maps.  DO NOT take the accumulations literally.  Just look at the area the models paint with accumulation and those are the areas most likely to see a wintry mix.  FULL disclosure, this model is the most aggressive with wintry weather.  Other models not so much, but they still have it.

FYI, I don't like what I see on the models for late next week.  Very warm air may surge north with a strong front approaching.  We'll have to watch for the threat for severe weather at that time.  Let's get through this weekend first. :)

7AM Saturday.  Peach is sleet, blue is snow, and green light rain.  Other models have this moving in faster.


9AM Saturday

10AM

11AM

Noon
By 1PM, it's all east and we're clearing out.  The spring game at War Memorial will be mostly dry, windy and cold.
AGAIN, DON'T TAKE THESE MAPS LITERALLY!!!  They all agree where the best chance for seeing a wintry mix is located. 





Severe Weather Likely Friday PM