Friday, August 29, 2014

Time Running Out On The Summer of 2014

It was a little more than a week ago I was sweating it out and thinking we had a shot at hitting 100 degrees.  The highest it reached was 97 degrees even though the modeling insisted it would reach 100 or even 101.  All summer long the models have been consistently too high with maximum temperatures.

Looking at the Holiday weekend ahead, some rain will be possible, especially over the south and east.  You often hear me talk about soil moisture keeping air temperatures down during the summer.  Next week, that additional soil moisture should hold back temperatures even further.  I'm growing extremely confident we will have no 100 degree heat officially here in Little Rock making it the 55th summer since record keeping began.  The latest, first 100 degree day was September 6th, 1922.  As of today, August 29th, I give it a 90 percent chance we will NOT hit 100 degrees this summer  I can hear the applause right now! LOL

Here are the number of 100 degree days over the past 11 years.  Looks like a cycle, eh?

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

100 Degrees In Sight?

I said there's a 70 percent chance we will not hit 100 degrees this summer and my optimism may go down in flames... literally.  It's going to get hot... REAL HOT late this week into the beginning of next week before any sort of cool down can occur.

IF we hit 100 degrees, it will be the 2nd latest first 100 degree day in Little Rock weather history.  The first latest 100 degree day is September 6th, 1922.   Hopefully the models are running a little too hot with their output and that has been the case this summer.  Also, any moisture in the ground will also slow the ascent to triple digit heat.  No matter what, the heat index will be outrageous this week.  That "feels like" temperature will be around 105 degrees or higher and heat advisories may be required. 

The models are hinting at some tropical development later next week in the Gulf of Mexico.  The Tuesday overnight run of the GFS brought a hurricane up into the northern Gulf and then the next run shifted it further into the eastern Gulf.  Bottom line, don't hang your hat on any one solution, but let's watch this.   We are going into the most active time of the year for tropical storms/hurricanes.  It's wayyyyyy too early to say if anything will develop and if it does, where it will go.

Below are maps from

GFS temperatures just off the surface Friday high temperatures may be near 100.

Highs Saturday afternoon will get very close to 100 degrees.  Remember, the heat index will be around 105 or higher.
Sunday's highs (August 25th) could be right at 100 degrees.
Monday looks like a sizzler too with triple digit heat according to this model.
And next Tuesday could be horrible too. 
The GFS on Tuesday August 26th into the 27th shows an impressive tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.  DO NOT TAKE THIS LITERALLY!  THIS WILL CHANGE!  It's impossible to predict something like this when it's a week away.  Just know we're watching for possible development and check back!

Friday, August 15, 2014

"Death and Destructin. A Cyclone of Gigantic Proportions Strikes The City of Little Rock."

As many of you know, I love reading and studying Arkansas weather history.  This is the main reason I developed the "Arkansas Weather" app.  I recently discovered the local National Weather Service has been hit 3 times by tornadoes, one of which occurred on October 2nd, 1894. The track was right through downtown Little Rock and very close to where the KATV building is now.

The event was front page headlines the next day in the Arkansas Gazette and it's reported with amazing detail.  I found the story on microfilm and had to zoom in and cut it up into several different images to make it readable.  I hope it all makes sense and I have it in the right order.  Enjoy.  It's fascinating!!!!!