Friday, October 14, 2016

Mother Nature Slaps Us In The Face With Temperature Roller Coaster

Sniffling, wheezing, coughing, and sneezing... blame it on Arkansas weather I guess.  We had temperatures over the past few days in the 80s, now 60s with much needed rainfall.  This is just an island of cool in a sea of warmth lately.  The cool air will quickly leave and a strong ridge will build into the state with temperatures moving well into the 80s to near 90 next week.  Yes, we will challenge daily record high temperatures starting Sunday.

As of Friday, here are our forecast high temperatures...

Sunday 87 degrees (record high 88 in 2011)
Monday 89 degrees (record high 89 in 1953)
Tuesday 87 degrees (record high 91 in 2005)

What about after that?  That's when the models diverge.  If you believe the GFS, a deep trough will cut off over the region delivering very cool air with a chance for rain.

If you believe the Euro, the trough moves in and out with a more progressive scenario.  This would bring some rain, but temperatures not as cool.  No matter how you slice it or dice it, the beginning of the week will be very warm and end cooler.  What about Race For The Cure?  I have been working that event over the past 11 years and it has always been dry and cool.  At this time, I see no reason why that won't happen again.  It's in the long range and can change so stay tuned.

The Euro next Thursday at 500mb (20 thousand feet) shows the trough over us.  See how the solid black lines makes a "U" over mid south into the Great Lakes?  That trough is in and out with a rain chance and cooler temperatures.  

The GFS is much different.  While it brings cooler air and rain chances, it cuts off that trough over the Arklatex in its latest run.  That's the big circle in pink and red.  If this happens, it would deliver very cool, cloudy, and dreary weather lasting longer than what the Euro shows. 

Now you see the differences in the long range between the two main operational models.  Regardless, they both show warm temperatures to begin the week and much cooler air to end with rain in between.  How long and how strong that cooler air lasts is debatable.  Stay tuned!

Thursday, October 06, 2016

A Brief Break in the Warmth

We warned about the near record warmth, but we're going to get a break.  Unfortunately, that break will not last too long.  This video goes over Arkansas weather over the next couple weeks.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Arkansas Leans Euro

You see all these political polls nowadays with states leaning GOP and leaning DEM.  My forecast usually leans Euro over the GFS.  I hate saying that, but the European model does an overall better job.

I want to show you how drastic a change the forecast for Monday is undergoing because the GFS is now catching up to the European's slower frontal boundary movement.  While the end result is about the same between the two models, cooler air next week, forecasting the boundary location is the big question for Monday!

Remember, the European model has shown highs in the 80s and 90s Monday consistently.  Here are the past two 12Z runs.

The following maps are from and
The 12Z run of the Euro today shows a HUGE temperature contrast from north to south Monday for highs.  70s north behind the front with 80's and 90s ahead of it.  This makes more sense given the upper pattern with the trough going to the SW U.S and another piece going to the Great Lakes.  This would push the front in from north to south and the Ozarks would slow the southward push allowing for another hot day before the cool down Tuesday.

The 12Z run Thursday had the same idea as todays run.
The 12Z run of the GFS Thursday showed high temperatures next Monday only in the 50s and 60s as it pushed the front through too rapidly.  It took most of its upper level energy north of the state instead of leaving some behind in the southwest U.S. 

Today's run (Friday) now has highs in the 70 and 80s.  It's getting warmer with each run for Monday!  This is due to the slower frontal movement.

Why am I posting this?  Just an illustration as to why I like to look at the Euro so much.  Not always right, but if I was a betting person, I'd put money on it.