Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Updated Winter Forecast PLUS Near Record Warmth This Weekend



Most are anxiously awaiting the winter and wondering what it will throw at us.  I have thoughts about all of the long range seasonal forecasts released from various agencies.

Also, it appears we're going to have near record breaking warmth in the short term, but a return to reality isn't too far away.  This video goes over everything you need to know

Thanks for making the Arkansas Weather Blog your choice for in-depth weather!


Thursday, October 16, 2014

Active Secondary Severe Weather Season



If it seems we have had a lot of severe weather over the past month, you're right.  Our primary severe weather season was almost non-existent with the obvious exception of the Mayflower/Vilonia tornado.  We all know it only takes one storm to cause devastation.  The cool and wet summer did bring storms and some of them reached severe limits.

As we are now rolling into fall and we always cation the secondary severe weather season can prove to be as active or even more active than spring.  The National Weather Service has almost completed their surveys from the Monday, October, 13th severe weather event.  They have found 7 tornadoes across the state.  If you account for the 3 tornadoes on October 2nd and 1 on September 17th, the majority of our tornadoes this year have all occurred within the past one month.  That's amazing!  

Are we finished with the severe weather?  No.  We are getting a much needed break which may last at least for the next 7 days.  We have the end of October, November, and into December to watch for a very active weather pattern.  I hope it calms down, but as I indicated on the blog several weeks ago, history says this may turn into an active secondary severe weather season and it has.

Check out these stats. below.


These are severe weather reports from the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock which covers most of the state.  January and February were quiet, then we saw some activity in March.  It really ramped up in April and a lot of that was from the 27th.  May was very calm, but June and July proved to be active.  The wet weather pattern helped to keep us from hitting 100 degrees.  Notice how we are only half way through October and the severe weather reports have really ramped up.  As a matter of fact, the Little Rock office has more severe weather reports this month than it did all of last April. Amazing!
As far as tornadoes are concerned. We had 7 in all of meteorological spring (March, April, and May).  We have had more in just the first 2 weeks of October!   Also, more than half of the tornadoes so far this year have all occurred within the past month. 

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Monday Severe Weather Update




6:40PM Sunday update... it appears the short term hi resolution models may be speeding up the arrival of rain and thunderstorm activity.  It could get into central Arkansas before sunrise...COULD.  This video goes over more model data plus some of my thoughts.








This video goes in depth with timing and severe threats late tonight into Monday.