Thursday, July 24, 2014

More Record Rain and Cool Weather On The Way



It was about 2 weeks ago I thought this pattern could be historic for Arkansas and it has lived up to that expectation easily.  There are more records to break and we're not stopping!

Now through the beginning of August is typically the hottest time of the year, but a dagger of cool weather will prevent that from happening and this summer is quickly going into the history books as one of the coolest on record, unless something drastic changes.

On the evening of July 23rd (Tuesday), I sent out a tweet saying I gave this summer a 70% chance of NOT hitting 100 degrees.  Could I live to regret saying that?  We are going to have a burst of heat this weekend before the blast of cool air arrives.  The models say mid 90s and even upper 90s will be possible.  While only 1 person knows what will happen, I have two reasons why we will not hit 100.  First, the ground is wet and the sun's energy goes into evaporation, then it can heat the air efficiently.  Second, the computer model forecast maximums have been too high lately and wrong.  Probably because of reason number 1.  Yes, it will get hot and humid this weekend, but it will not stay long at all.

We also have rain records to watch once again.  We are less than half an inch from breaking into the top 10 wettest July's on record.  This will be possible.  It's interesting to note 7 of the top 10 wettest July's NEVER hit 100 degrees.  That makes sense if the ground is wet!

You may have seen something new I launched on Facebook recently.  I have spent the past 1.5 years researching and developing an app.  It's finally completed and is available in both the Apple and Google Play stores.  It's called "Arkansas Weather".  The focus is all about Arkansas weather history.  My goal is to make this the encyclopedia of Arkansas weather so expect much, much more will be added.  This would not have been possible without my wife, Andria.  She was a huge help.  This project is something I have done on my own.  As you know, weather his more than a career for me, it's a hobby too.


Below, most of the maps are from weatherbell.com

European max temps Saturday afternoon are in the mid and upper 90s.  This might be a touch too hot, but it's going to be STEAMY!
Sunday looks the same.  HOT and STEAMY!  Will we hit 100?  It's possible, but unlikely in my opinion.  I would not be surprised to see a few isolated spots reach it.
Tuesday max temps show the cool air moving in from the north and suppressing the heat to the south.  Look at those highs only in the 80s again with LOW humidity too.
Does that look weird to you?  Max temperatures on Wednesday indicate the coolest air over western Arkansas and the warmest northeast.  Well, the model is seeing clouds and rain here.j  Look familiar?  We had this set up just a week or so ago.  These high temperatures are only in the 60s and 70s!  WOW!!!
Here's the Euro rainfall amounts on Wednesday afternoon with the focus over western and southern Arkansas.  You can see why the model thinks this area will be cooler.  PLEASE DO NOT TAKE THIS LITERALLY!!!!!  Future model runs will adjust where it think it will rain and this is unlikely to verify exactly.
BULLSEYE!  NOAA's 6-10 day outlook indicates a very high chance for well below average temperatures!  This is July 29th through August 2nd.
The 8-14 day outlook shows well below average temperatures continue from July 31st to August 6th.  AMAZING.  Right in the heart of the hottest time of the year.

Sunday, July 20, 2014

Another Round Of Cool Air



There's really no doubt about it, temperatures will warm this week to where they should be in July, but more cool air will move into the state the following week.  It's the story of the summer... a burst of heat only to be tempered by a blast of cooler air.  At this time, I don't think it will be as strong as the previous round of cool weather, but it will be unusual for July.  This video goes over everything you need to know.


Thursday, July 17, 2014

Living Through Weather History



About a week ago, I said this pattern could make weather history and it still has promise to do just that.  I'm writing this post early in the afternoon on Thursday and it's only 70 degrees in Little Rock with many locations across western Arkansas only in the 60s.  There's no other way of putting this... AMAZING and UNREAL!!!!!   These readings are more than 20 degrees below average.

Look at these records which will likely fall...

The coolest daily high temperature Thursday July 17th is 77 in 1923
The coolest daily high temperature Friday July 18th is 78 set in 1918 and 1897

We're almost guaranteed of breaking that 1923 record of 77 degrees and it's very possible to break the other one Friday.  Also, if we stay at or below 73 degrees today, we will break into the top 10 coolest July days in Little Rock weather history.  That's going to be tough to do, but it's certainly possible.  The locations in the 60s are very likely to bust and shatter some long standing records.  For more on these temperature and rainfall records, check out the blog posts below.

With the rainfall coming in this afternoon into Friday morning, we're going to start paying attention to some monthly rainfall records.  Little Rock could easily see 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts.  So far this July, we have had 4.64 inches of rain.  It's possible to be close to 7 inches by Friday afternoon.  With almost 2 weeks left this month, we have the potential to break into the top 10 wettest July's in Little Rock weather history.  Here are the numbers and records.

1. 2009 11.65''
2. 1891 9.23''
3. 1988 7.95''
4. 1989 7.87''
5. 1923 7.86''
6. 1932 7.76''
7. 1951 7.60''
8. 1889 7.59''
9. 1936 7.51''
10. 1902 7.46''

It's interesting to note the wettest July in history was in 2009.  That was also the last year we did NOT hit 100 degrees all summer.  It also turned out the be the wettest year in Little Rock too.  While it's unlikely we will have amounts reach 11.65'', the potential for heavy rain associated with thunderstorms will exist as we near the end of the month.

The morning run of the European model from weatherbell.com indicates between 1-2 inches across central AR with higher amounts southwest.   Northern AR will get the least.
The hi res NAM shows something similar to the European.