Sunday, October 21, 2007

Should I Stay Or Should I Go???

That is what our "cut-off" low must be asking itself!!!

The above is a computer model depicting our upper level low over Arkansas by mid week. It is "cut-off" from the main flow. I'm going to be completely honest with you. Predicting these things can be a pain and this one is no exception. For days, it looked like it would sit and spin over Arkansas bringing very, very cool weather with mostly cloudy skies and a few light showers. This morning, the models show it as more progressive and moving it out of here faster. This still brings the coolest air of the season to the state, but keeps the clouds and rain chances out of the state Tuesday through Thursday.

Here's what we do know at this point. A cold front moves through the state tonight and Monday with clouds and showers behind it. So Monday will be much cooler with a few showers. Temperatures will slowly fall in many areas and stay in the 60s. The rest of the week will be very cool. It's the sky cover and rain chances that have to be sorted out. The models have a very difficult time with these cut offs and it's entirely possible the low sits over us. The european model still develops this cut off so I think its best to go with a slower progression of the low until more evidence is in. I hate flip flopping my forecast based on one or two model runs. I'll evaluate it more this afternoon. Bottom line, we're getting rid of the 80s and bringing fall to Arkansas.

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NOAA Winter Guidance