Sunday, September 19, 2010

From Deluge To Drought

9 AM Tuesday Update...  While today will be day number 110 of 90 degree plus temperatures, I think we will put an end to it at 113 or 114 days.  We still may be able to squeeze out a few more going into the beginning of October.  Here's my thinking why.  Two of the three major long term models (Euro and Canadian) both indicate a major tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico late this month into the beginning of October.  Depending on where this feature goes and how strong it is, sinking air around the periphery of the storm can create some hot weather.  This will be easy to do since the ground is so dry.  Stay tuned.

It's amazing how we have gone from one extreme to another.  Last year at this time, we thought the rain would never end.  Now we wonder if we'll ever get a good soaker.  As we continue this La Nina pattern, the prospects for significant rainfall look bleak.  The one thing we must always keep a watchful eye on is the tropics.  Many times this can bust a drought and bring too much rain.  It has been quite active and we still have several weeks to go this tropical season.

NOAA has released the latest assessment of the drought conditions and the long range forecast into December.  Check out the graphics below.

Also, our streak of 90 degree days continues.  As of Sunday, we're at 108 this year.  Once we hit 115, we'll tie 1954 and 1980 for most in a single year.  While it's possible to break the record, a frontal boundary next weekend could end the hot weather.

1 comment:

jimmylee42 said...

Looks like the heat is finally winding down. Unusual to me that this summer was so hot on average without approaching the number of days over 100 that 1954 and 1980 had. Would'nt mind seeing just one more 100 day since my guess in the contest is 22. I picked that number because my wife and one of my grandsons have birthdays on that day of the month. I should have gone with mine which is 21.