Thursday, December 23, 2010

Tracking The Chance For A White Christmas (Part 3)

1 PM Thursday Update... Amy has a great post in the comment section so check it out.  Amy, forecasting the weather is no doubt challenging.  There are times where it's very complicated and others where it's crystal clear what will happen.  This last one was somewhere in between.  You're right mother nature is in control and she could still throw curve balls tomorrow.  But right now, I'm sticking to my guns with northern Arkansas with light accumulations.  The latest version of Futurecast depicts what I think will happen.  Again, Little Rock COULD see flurries, but don't count on it.

12Z Thursday Exclusive "Futurecast"
10 AM Thursday Update... No changes, I think Little Rock will be lucky to see a few flurries.  The piece of energy coming from the north Friday night may bring a few snow flurries or light snow showers to northern Arkansas.  This is the only place where a dusting to MAYBE 1'' will occur.  I think elevation will help so the Ozarks may get up to one inch.  Sorry everybody, but that's just the way it works with this system.


According to the poll on the right, you think a white Christmas is defined as the ground covered by at least a dusting of snow.  Now that we are within two days of this weak storm, I'll go ahead and throw my ideas out there as far as accumulations and the forecast are concerned.  Read this knowing that even within the short term, this forecast can still change.

As I stated in the previous post, this minor event is just not coming together to produce significant snowfall.  The energy from the west is taking an Olympic dive to the south while the northern branch delivers the cold air after it passes.  I think areas from just north of Ft. Smith to Clinton to just north of West Memphis will receive a dusting to 1'' of snow at best.  Some of the higher elevations of northwest Arkansas might be able to squeeze out just a little bit more.  From Mena to Little Rock to Memphis and north of that line, I only expect a few flurries to occur.  I give it UNDER a 20% for a dusting to occur in these places.

Clouds may linger for awhile Christmas morning and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few lingering flurries especially across the northeastern sections.

The GFS and Euro are also hinting at another system late next week (New Years Eve), but this one isn't a winter weather maker for us.  A strong surface low may develop well north of the state bringing warm and moist air with thunderstorms.  WAY tooo early to say how strong they would be, but it's definitely worth watching.  We saw how much this current system changes by the day so trying to predict specifics more than a week away is useless.

Remember, this forecast can still change and I'll keep you updated here and on twitter!

The first graphic below is from our exclusive model "Futurecast".  I think it may be a bit too far south with snowfall amounts.

00Z Thursday Futurecast


Anonymous said...

Todd this snow is a dud. But i would like to know how much rain we will get because we really need it more than snow. Then lets move on to the first week of jan cold and snow or warm and wet?

Anonymous said...

Maybe this forecast is what we need to get snow remember this past feb little rock waa supposed to be a rain event all day before u knew it little rock had 7 inches of snow on the ground. Seems our best snows are never forecasted its just one of the tougher places to forecast in the country in the winter months.

Will said...

Not being critical but I'm just curious as to why KATV continue to utilize this "Futurecast" software when it's rarely accurate and it's often accompanied by a disclaimer such as you just used indicating that the snowfall projections are too far south?

Anonymous said...

I looked atwhat the national weather service is forecasting both from springfield and i looked at little rocks forecast to. U go over the boarder into missouri and your expecting 1 to 3 inches with a high of 32. Than you look at the little rocks weather service and there saying upto an inch and 36. Lol i thnk little rock wants to go warmer than what its really gonna be.

Amy said...

A cold Christmas rain is really a huge bummer!! Seriously!! But I've learned so much through this blog.No offense....but I used to wonder why you weathermen were always blowing it with the forecast. If these models we've been watching over the last week are all you guys have to go on, no wonder nobody ever knows what it's going to do outside!!! This technology stinks, and is further proof that God is always in control and He can do anything he wants with the any moment!! Obviously, meteorologists have very little to go on but a hunch. good...GFS...NAM...EURO...worthless! Just talk about the weather we have today and wishcast the rest!! Wishcasting this snow made the Christmas season fun this year, so thanks, Todd!! I'll keep watching and learning, and wishing!! Anything can happen!! Winter has only just begun!! Merry Christmas, everyone!!

Jason H said...

Im going with Gosnell Ar with 2.5 inches as my sweet spot, In Mississippi County. Ill say we get .5 here in Pocahontas....pulling for a inch!

Anonymous said...

hey everyone i think friday will be a surprise i think benton north will see about a inch of snow on the ground by christmas morning. the temps are forecast to warm tomar it will be icy in spots so be careful. i say the rain will change to snow in the areas i said around sunset. maybe 8sh at latest.have fun in the snow everyone

WeatherNinja said...

I'm sticking with my original forecast and may go down with the ship..but I still think there will be enough cold air spill in, in the upper levels to give us a shot of snow by Christmas morning. My sweetspot was Pocahontas and that still looks good to me. In fact I would not be surprised to see some snow showers or flurries well into Christmas day in the NE.

To Amy's point...generally you can discount what the models indicate 10-14 days out (as I have learned) but in the two to three day time frame they can and in a lot of cases do a good job. The fact that to get snow in Central Arkansas everything has to come together just right and in this case the systems just are not phasing together correctly..the moisture will be here but not the cold air (at least in the upper levels) and when the deeper cold air gets here the moisture will be shunted to the east and south. It is frustrating at times yet the challenge is what keeps me interested. I'm sure it was much simpler back in the day before we all had easy access to computer modeling. Snow may be difficult but think about how far we have come with advanced severe weather warnings (and even those bust). You hit the nail on the head with your statement that God is in control and no matter how much we think we can predict or forecast..He has the last say.

Im hanging in there with some Christmas snow for all those out there that just a few flakes would put in a minutes worth of excitement and make them smile.

I wish a Merry Christmas to all the weather geeks out there and those who read the blog just to find out what's going on.


Anonymous said...

Idk whats the deal? Its suppose to be 37 degrees and yet we have snow in the forcast lol. I honestly dont think its gonna happen at 37 degrees lol. If the national weather service would takeoff about four more off the 37 degrees ill believe will get a chance of a white christmas lol.

The Weather Fanatic said...

Hello and Merry X-mas to all bloggers. It sure feels like it could do something outside doesn't it? I'm in the camp that if the temp is below 40, I'd rather see snow than a raw, cold rain. I hate to see cold air wasted. This is not a favorable track for us to see anything substantial in any part of the state. I like systems that come at us between Dallas and Houston,make the trek through North Central LA and off to the NE.

Since this isn't a favorable track, yes we have to settle for whatever Mother Nature brings us. Remember this time last week Todd had us at a 0% chance to see a white Christmas in Central Arkansas? It's fun that we have something to watch for! The %is ten-fold up to 10% lol.

It sure would be nice to see snow falling and a bonus for a dusting. I like it when expectations are low because we can get surprised. If this upper low spinning into our area can just move maybe 50 miles to the south before it gets here, we will see more than what is predicted for Central Arkansas. We'll find out in the morning. I don't think that we'll get out of the 30's for highs tomorrow. Let's keep an eye on the wind. If we can maintain more of a NE wind, it won't warm up tomorrow and we may just have enough cooling tomorrow night to make this happen. All I want is to see a very light dusting on my deck and maybe the trees and grassy surfaces and my gut tells me it just may happen here in Central Arkansas. Expect the unexpected, keep the faith, and think snow!!

Anonymous said...

It can snow at temperatures above 32 degrees, in fact some of the biggest snows have occured when the temp was in the mid 30's.

snowfreak said...

okay you guys. there is a new computer model you should look at. it is the loluw model... it stands for laugh out loud you wish.its forecast is awesome.its predicting seven inches of now for little rock.points north get less snow since they normally get more(haha) points south get sleet.(hahaha).here is the catch.. the snow is magical.. if you build a snowman it will turn into frosty.. YAY!!!the snow also has a frssh pine scent and is the only known substance to that you can plant money trees in.p.s. it never melts.unless u need it to.kastly its clean and prevents order for this forecast to come true you mustsend a letter containing 1 million dollars to the loluw company.

Anonymous said...

SNOW in mena

nlrweatherman said...

I am going to love watching the potential severe weather maker next Friday, if everything comes together things could get ugly, The good thing about it being really warm late next week is that our biggest snows come after unseasonably warmer temps. We will have to watch and wait

NOAA Winter Guidance