|12Z Thursday Exclusive "Futurecast"|
According to the poll on the right, you think a white Christmas is defined as the ground covered by at least a dusting of snow. Now that we are within two days of this weak storm, I'll go ahead and throw my ideas out there as far as accumulations and the forecast are concerned. Read this knowing that even within the short term, this forecast can still change.
As I stated in the previous post, this minor event is just not coming together to produce significant snowfall. The energy from the west is taking an Olympic dive to the south while the northern branch delivers the cold air after it passes. I think areas from just north of Ft. Smith to Clinton to just north of West Memphis will receive a dusting to 1'' of snow at best. Some of the higher elevations of northwest Arkansas might be able to squeeze out just a little bit more. From Mena to Little Rock to Memphis and north of that line, I only expect a few flurries to occur. I give it UNDER a 20% for a dusting to occur in these places.
Clouds may linger for awhile Christmas morning and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few lingering flurries especially across the northeastern sections.
The GFS and Euro are also hinting at another system late next week (New Years Eve), but this one isn't a winter weather maker for us. A strong surface low may develop well north of the state bringing warm and moist air with thunderstorms. WAY tooo early to say how strong they would be, but it's definitely worth watching. We saw how much this current system changes by the day so trying to predict specifics more than a week away is useless.
Remember, this forecast can still change and I'll keep you updated here and on twitter!
The first graphic below is from our exclusive model "Futurecast". I think it may be a bit too far south with snowfall amounts.
|00Z Thursday Futurecast|