Tuesday, December 28, 2010

A Wild and Wacky Weather Week

4:45 PM Wednesday Update... I will have the top ten weather events of 2010 posted this evening.  It's very in depth and it includes plenty of video and pictures.  

7 AM Wednesday Update...  It's nice to see the state covered up with rainfall.  We needed more days like this last summer and fall.  This rain and the rain on New Years Eve will keep Little Rock out of the top 10 driest Decembers and top 10 driest years.

Most of the state is now under a slight risk for severe weather on New Years Eve.  The place in the state most vulnerable to severe weather will be the eastern half.  The amount of instability will determine the degree of severe weather and right now, that amount is lacking.  This could still change if the timing of the front slows and breaks in the clouds occur ahead of it.  Let's hope this becomes a "non-event".  Any day of the year is bad for severe weather, but New Years Eve is especially worse.  

I am very busy working on my annual top 10 weather events for 2010.  As always, it's very in depth and takes time to put together.  I will hopefully have it here on the blog later today.


We started this week off with lows in the teens and we'll be in the 60s and 70s Friday.  That's Arkansas weather for you.  As I always say, "there's nothing normal about Arkansas weather."  This time of the year, such a temperature change can come at a cost... thunderstorms.  I'll have more on that later.

So far this month we have had .24'' of rainfall.  If the month ended today, it would be the 2nd driest on record.  However, that won't happen.  We should get plenty of rainfall to keep this month OUT of the top 10 driest Decembers.  The first round of rain arrives tonight and Wednesday.  Once this slug of moisture passes, the air mass will become mild and moist as the pattern is changing a bit.

A huge trough of low pressure will come out of the western United States.  I have to give credit to the GFS for seeing this last week.  Although specifics were wrong, it did point to a major system in the central United States to end 2010 and start 2011.  The main worry with this system is its severe aspect.  With it being only Tuesday, this can and will still change.  I think the best chance for severe will be across the eastern half of the state Friday afternoon.  This is dependent upon instability levels.  It's early, so I don't want anybody to let their guard down.  I'm hoping for plenty of clouds and rainfall ahead of the approaching front to keep things more stable.  I'll keep you updated.


Anonymous said...

Well 60s for highs and 70s. I guess this is what joe b was talking about the warm winter. Well so far joe bs forecast is a big bust lets hope it continues. I think our snow could be comin mid january. I think the whole state will c a 3 to 6 inch snowfall. And i will be enjoying every moment of it.

tboyce1979 said...

Sooo...hmmm..Accuweather has in the forecast for today...snow...really...where? Good job prediciting the weather. If I go outside and it's snowing I'll buy everyone on the blog a beer...and I don't even drink.

Jason H said...

Randolph County has not seen 60 degrees since November 25th. Itll feel nice to hit 60, but wish is was sunny when it does it. Looks like SE Ar will go under a Moderate chance by tomorrow. Still hoping for snow, but dont look good right now.

cb6000 said...

Hey, gang. This month has been rather boring, when it comes to winter weather. Here's hoping that January 2011 changes that. I'm also hoping that it doesn't get too warm and unstable enough for severe thunderstorms this week.

Bimini Butterfly said...

hey everyone! does any one see any hope for snow in the near future??

Anonymous said...

Well its a slow day at work im bored so i thougt i would give a few thoughts on the weather. Its a nasy day out there with the rain but its nice because we need it very bad. We are getting exactly what the dr ordered. As far as the winter weather anytime soon i keep going back and fourth what looks promising one day for snow down the road the nrxt day is to warm. I just honestly dont see any snow in cen ark anytime soon when i say soom i mean this winter. I hope im wrong im just a frustrated snowlover.

Snowbird Bob said...

Hello Everyone, I know many of us are frustrated without any measurable snow events. Here are a few thoughts for Jan.1-31. Yes, this may be a little in detail & anything could happen. Jan.1-7 Temps mostly average a few days a little above & some a little below, as far a precip about average. Only slight chances of winter precip. Jan.8-15 Temps Well Below average, a few days in the Deep Freeze. Good chances of winter precip for the whole state. Jan.16-31 Temps Average to Below average. Precip average to above average. Best Chances for Winter Weather, Could be Ice Storms or Snow Storms. I am still thinking that Central & Southern Ark have the best chances to see a major winter storm. "The Odds for Winter Weather in Arkansas is improving day by day as we head deeper into the winter season." I look to be on my first snow chase in Arkansas in the 2nd half of the month, I probably want have to go that deep into Ark either lol. Hopefully..
As far as the Severe weather potential for New Years eve, I will leave that up to Todd,Ninja & the other guys. I really dont forecast anything except Winter Weather & Tropical systems & dont have that much experience either.. Happy New Year everyone..