We have a lot of plans for the blog Sunday which will cover the storm from A to Z.
Thanks everyone for getting your information here. You can always contribute in the comment section and share your thoughts. Also, send snow pictures to firstname.lastname@example.org. GET CREATIVE! We'll share a few on the air and on line.
|PRELIMINARY snowfall forecast|
9:15 PM Friday Update... The new NAM is drier and delays the onset of precip. in central Arkansas. It shows the best chance Sunday night into Monday morning with 2 inches or less for the Little Rock area. On the flip side, the 18Z GFS shows significant snow for central and southern Arkansas beginning Sunday afternoon. Even though we are within 48 hours of the storm, there are differences in the data that must be sorted out. As you read the 4:30 post below, you can see how I outline some of the worries and the things that could limit the snowfall. For some reason today as I thought about the forecast, I kept thinking about dry air in the lower levels "zapping" precipitation. This will prevent northern Arkansas from getting a good snow, but how far south will this occur? How about the other side of the equation? What if the storm tracks further north and we get more than expected?
There is so much to watch this weekend! I like the forecast we put out on the air tonight. With all the available data, the snowfall accumulation map Ned and I put together is, at this point, the most likely scenario. This can always change.
Thanks everyone for reading the blog and getting your in depth weather here. For all of you snow lovers out there, think positive thoughts. Read Amy's post in the comment section. Hopefully, we'll all be able to look out our windows Sunday evening and enjoy a fresh blanket of fluffy snow.
4:30 PM Friday Update... Ned and I were talking in the weather center about what COULD go wrong with the forecast. We both agree the worst case scenario (for snow lovers) is heavy rainfall wrapping up around the low along the Gulf coast robbing the moisture transport to the north. One more thing which could go wrong... very dry air from the north could "zap" moisture on the northern fringe. If the low goes any further south, this could decrease snow amounts on the northern fringe. While this is not likely to happen, it is within the realm of possibilities. With that said, there's a much greater chance for significant snowfall Sunday. Here's the latest run of the GFS which just came out this afternoon. It shows the highest amount of snowfall along the I-30 corridor in SW Arkansas with 3-5'' there and areas to the east. The amounts lessen the further north you go. This has been a very consistent trend with this model . More updates later and all throughout the weekend.
|18Z GFS Friday|
|12Z GFS Snow accumulations|
|12Z GFS SLEET accumulations|
|12Z GFS FREEZING RAIN|
10:30 AM Friday Update... The 12Z GFS is in and snowfall accumulations look highest across the southern 1/2 of the state including Little Rock. It indicates significant accumulation along the I-30 corridor from Texarkana to just SW of Little Rock. This areas extends eastward towards Pine Bluff, Fordyce, and Star City. This model indicates 3-6 inches or slightly more in that area. NOT A FORECAST, just one piece of the weather puzzle.
|Friday 12Z GFS|
|Closer look at 12Z NAM Friday|
|12Z NAM Friday|
The data below is from all of the major models used in the meteorological world. Even with all this information, this forecast is STILL NOT SET IN STONE. The track of the storm along with available moisture can drastically change this forecast. But for fun, here's what the models show. I will continue to update throughout the day here on the blog and on twitter.