Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Snowy Thursday For Some, But Not Others

10:15 PM Tuesday Update... I have a weather update, but first I want to thank everyone who came down to meet us tonight.  It was a little experiment to find out what kind of response we would get and it was great.  I think at some point in the future we may organize a bigger gathering.  Check out the video below of some of you who showed up.


Now onto the weather, the NAM came back colder and wetter.  I think temperatures will only top out in the mid 30s Thursday.  The latest NAM indicates anywhere from 1.5 to 2'' of snow for Little Rock with higher amounts up north.  This is NOT a forecast, just one of four daily runs of this model.  The GFS is still coming in as I type this, but looks promising for small snow amounts in central Arkansas.  I get the feeling from many that 1-2 inches isn't considered much snow after the big one we had a little more than a week ago.  I guess we're kinda spoiled after our 6 incher!  If we do get this, remember those roads will become slick.  I will of course have a full update Wednesday morning!  Below is the 00Z NAM snowfall accumulations.  Look at those mountains with the higher amounts.  Probably a little overdone.

00Z NAM showing the northern half of the state getting snow.  Highest in the Ozarks. 1-2'' central.
I have analyzed the latest data on this Tuesday morning and it still looks like a north Arkansas snow.  In the last blog post, I stressed this would be a quick and light event, especially when compared to the January 9th snow.  The GFS and NAM have their differences, but both agree on 1'' of snow or less in central Arkansas.  For instance, the NAM only puts out less than .1'' for Little Rock and the GFS says anywhere from .5 to 1''.  Remember, the NAM did an absolutely horrible job with the January 9th storm.  Each storm is different, but I am hesitant to believe the NAM right now until we get to within 24 hours of the storm.   The GFS is much colder than the NAM.  For Thursday, the GFS indicates a high of only 37 and the NAM says 49.  The GFS shows a mix in Little Rock of rain, snow, and sleet during Thursday afternoon with a change over to all snow around 5 to 6 PM.  This will be short lived as most of the moisture moves to the east.

We are still a couple of days away from this so timing, strength, and track of the low can still change.  But right now, I don't expect very much in central Arkansas.  Northern areas stand the best chance for accumulating snow, and even that won't be much with a general 1-3 inches and isolated higher amounts over the mountains.

Tonight, pay close attention to the twitter feed.  That's all I can say right now.  We're going to do something that really hasn't been done before on the Arkansas Weather Blog.  It's kind of an experiment and it should be entertaining!   Check out the maps below...

Meteorologist Barry Brandt's morning snowfall potential
12Z Tuesday NAM snowfall amounts.  Little if any in LR.  1-3'' north
12Z GFS Tues. Snow amounts. Light central AR with 1-3'' north.  Higher amounts in the mountains
12Z exclusive "Futurecast"  Little central sections.  Highest north.


Anonymous said...

It amazes me how 1 to 3 inches isnt considered a significant snow. However if it was 2 to 4 inches it would be. It confuses me lol. Anyways ive looked at the ky3 and there saying 2 to 4 inches or more. So i guess well see just how significant the northern half gets it.

tboyce1979 said...

I feel so left out :( I wanna come hang out!!!

Shack said...

It was a great to finally meet all of you this evening! Apparently I didn't stay long enough for the award and speech, dang!

Anyway, if all the other viewers of the blog get a chance to come out next time to meet the "gang", I highly recommend it, you won't meet a nicer group of people who are full of information that us "laymans" are in great need of.

Now Todd, 2 things; you need to fully explain the Cobb algorithm, and bring a cameraman if you're going to put me on here, I really need my best side represented or some serious editing before looking like that!

Have a great night all.


Anonymous said...

I live in South Arkansas, 5 miles south of El Dorado to be exact. I have a 19 year old and a 6 year old. They have only seen snow in person, a few times. The most they ever saw was not even enough to make a snowman, and by the time they made a couple of snowballs the temp went up and melted the snow. Extreme South Arkansas wants snow...not sleet or freezing rain, which is what we usually get, but snow. PLEASE. I think we are in some kind of bubble here. Please Todd send us some snow and soon. Oh, and while you are at it could you make it stick and last a little while. Thank you for all you do!

JaxTonyPiper said...

There is some very hazardous wording in this post. I'm just sayin'.
I still want more though.
Not like BLIZZARD, but a good amount more would be great!

NOAA Winter Guidance