Sunday, February 27, 2011

Severe Sunday Night

The Storm Prediction Center continues with a moderate risk for severe weather.  The main threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds and there will be the possibility for isolated tornadoes.  Some hail can't be ruled out as well.  We will have to watch for any storms that develop later this afternoon and evening as those could become severe.  The most likely time frame for the severe weather threat arrives between midnight and sunrise as a line of thunderstorms develops and pushes across the state.  As we have been saying here on the Arkansas Weather Blog for days, since this is coming in at night, you MUST have a warning system in place to keep you updated.   That's why I highly encourage you to sign up for WeatherCall 7.

Below are maps from the high resolution 4km WRF model.  Check out the captions beneath them as I explain what's happening.  I also have some maps from SPC.  Stay with Channel 7,, and the Arkansas Weather Blog for the latest.

2 PM Sunday.  WRF shows individual cells in western TN and maybe far NE AR

9PM Sunday.   It doesn't look like much, but we'll watch for some development along the 67/167 corridor
1AM Monday. A line of thunderstorms begins to develop from NW AR into N. TX.  This is with the frontal boundary and the main threat for severe weather will be with this line overnight.
Thunderstorms pushing into central AR around 3 AM.  Some will be severe with high winds the greatest threat.  Isolated tornado possible
Line is pushing into NE AR into south central areas around 5AM.  The severe threat continues

Lines pushed into eastern AR by 6AM and quickly exits soon after.
Moderate risk for most of AR by the Storm Prediction Center
Tornado risk highest from central into NE AR.  15% of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point.
Very high chance for wind damage.  45% of wind damage within 25 miles of any given point.
Hail threat is present.  30% of hail 1'' in diameter or larger within 25 miles of any given point.

1 comment:

Shaun Martin said...

Just felt an earthquake in Heber Springs!

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