I'll have more on the severe weather threat Thursday AM.
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the moderate risk for severe weather further west and south to include a good chunk of Arkansas. So what does a moderate risk mean? The risk is in the day two time frame and according to the SPC, that means there's a 45% of seeing a combined threat for hail, high winds, and tornadoes.
|Courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center|
|Risk for severe weather Thursday|
I am especially concerned for southern and eastern Arkansas and anywhere else that can break out into sunshine which could add fuel to the fire. If this occurs in the warm sector, instability levels will go higher and more severe thunderstorms can be expected. The time frame is late afternoon and early evening.
|12Z NAM shows areas of strong spin across central, eastern, and southern Arkansas. If you look closely, you also see an area of high CAPE in southeastern Arkansas reaching close to 1000 j/kg. This map is valid at 6 PM Thursday.|
|This is from the 12Z NAM and is valid at 9 PM Thursday. It shows CAPE values around 500-100 across the southern half of the state.|