High pressure will move east of the state and a front with an area of low pressure will develop to our west. The flow will bring in a strong southwesterly flow by Thursday with temperatures well into the 70s to near 80 degrees. It's even possible to bring readings into the 80s especially for western Arkansas.
|00Z GFS 850 mb flow valid Thursday PM. The warm colors indicate quite a bit of warm air advection from the southwest boosting surface temperatures well into the 70s and maybe even 80s.|
I have been looking at the 850 mb flow (roughly 5000 feet). I really like looking at this level when forecasting. It shows a LONG fetch of southerly winds developing around a ridge of high pressure located across the eastern United States. This will transport moisture across the Gulf of Mexico into the central United States setting the stage for some rain and thunderstorm activity with another storm system which will arrive Tuesday.
|00Z GFS valid late next Tuesday. This shows the surface low well into Canada with a front drapped across the state and areas of rain.|
We need the rain (not all at one time though) as most of the southern half of the state is in an extreme to severe drought according to the NWS's drought monitor. As we get deeper into our severe weather season, it's very typical to bring in these large amounts of moisture and warm air as storm systems progress from west to east across the country.