It's early Sunday morning and I'm sitting in my office at home hearing the the wind out there already. It's not much, but it's really going to crank up this afternoon and I would not be surprised to see a few gusts around 40 mph. While we have had some rain recently and humidity levels will slowly rise today, I think there will be an elevated fire danger today so please be careful.
Now onto the threat for severe weather. I think the picture is getting very clear now how this will unfold. I'm going to spare you the model graphics this morning, but look for a few later today as I keep you updated.
Rain and storms will develop over the plains of Kansas today and push to the northeast. This is the initial round of significant convection which will not affect the state. This is associated with a wave of low pressure which will clearly move north.
A line of rain and storms will develop with the front and push into northwestern Arkansas shortly after midnight, then travel across the state. A few of these storms could become strong to severe with hail and wind the primary threat. At this point, the tornado threat is low, but it's still there. I think the front will pass central Arkansas sometime around mid morning to around the noon hour. Temperatures will begin to fall once that front passes and the threat for severe weather will end at that time. Meanwhile, southeast Arkansas will have a chance to destabilize. It also appears some upper level support will help enhance the storm threat in this area of the state by early afternoon. I'm mostly concerned with locations from near Texarkana to Pine Bluff up to West Memphis and areas south and east of that line. Thunderstorms will intensify, but the window for severe will only last a few short hours, then push east of the Mississippi River. I think the threat for significant severe weather will continue for our neighbors there into the early evening hours Monday.
While this is a likely scenario, we're dealing with Mother Nature here and she'll do whatever she wants so I urge everyone to stay tuned to the blog, Channel 7, and katv.com for the latest information.
If the front slows down, an enhanced threat for severe weather will last longer and will exist further west into other areas of the state. Here are a few maps from the Storm Prediction Center Below. I'll have more updates throughout the day.
|Moderate risk north of the state with the initial wave. There's a slight risk for NW Arkansas as a line of storms should enter that area of the state.|
|A slight risk for severe weather exists for much of Arkansas Monday. The threat is mainly for the first half of the day, but if the front slows, it could last longer, especially for southeast Arkansas.|
|SPC is highlighting the greatest risk for severe in that eastern corridor I have been talking about. That threat will continue into TN and MS later in the day.|