Friday, April 22, 2011

Think The Weather Is Active? Just Wait Until Next Week!

This is becoming a spring pattern on steroids.  The front which brought the severe weather Tuesday is on the move to the north and it will bring warm and humid conditions back to the state.  That front will camp out across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri for a few days as it becomes a focal point for copious amounts of rainfall.  This will raise the concern for flash flooding.  A couple of strong pieces of energy will swing through the central section of the country next week to help enhance thunderstorm development along and ahead of the front.  These areas of low pressure will bring a good chance for strong to severe thunderstorms to a large section of the state Monday into Tuesday.  At this time, it's not clear what the main threats will be, but all modes of severe weather along with more heavy rain will all be possible.  That's the bad news.  The good news... we know several days in advance what could happen so prepare!  Not only you, but tell your friends and neighbors as well.  Hopefully we can escape this without any harm to people or property.

Below are weather maps and models showing what may happen in the days to come.

This is possible rainfall Friday morning through early Monday morning.  Many areas will NOT see much rain across central and southern sections.  The focus will be along a front draped to the north.  It's possible to see 4-6'' or more of rainfall across northeastern Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas and into Missouri.

This is possible rainfall from early Monday morning into Wednesday morning.  This indicates the potential for 3-5 inches across a large swath of the state.  Two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms during this time frame will increase those rainfall totals and flash flooding is a concern.
This is the surface weather map early Monday morning showing low pressure developing along the front to our west.  This initial wave of low pressure will increase the severe potential Monday afternoon and evening for much of Arkansas.
This is the European model valid late Monday showing an area of low pressure across north Texas.  This will shoot to the northeast with a round of rain and storms for the state.
This is the European 24 hours later... late Tuesday.  It shows the first wave of low pressure in Wisconsin and ANOTHER wave on the front in the Texas panhandle.  This would be a second wave later Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting most of Arkansas for a threat for severe weather on day 4 (Monday) which is the red shaded area.  There's another risk for severe weather on Tuesday (Day 5) in area outlined in purple.

1 comment:

Danno123 said...

so the drought is over?

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