Sunday, December 25, 2011

Snow Chance Update

This will be brief.  It's Christmas and there's still plenty to do with family today.   Hope you have had a fantastic day!  Merry Christmas.

For an in depth analysis of the situation Monday into Tuesday morning, I urge you to view the video in the blog post below.

With no arctic air in sight, just about the only way to get snow is with a strong, cold core low!  And we've got one to deal with.  Rain will fall Monday afternoon and evening across much of the state, but as we have been telling you here on the Arkansas Weather Blog over the past few days, once that upper low moves through the state, flakes will fly.  Where and how much is the big question!  Right now, I like the NAM showing northern Arkansas for a nice coating of snow, but I also like what our own Futurecast is showing us as well.  I"ll explain in the graphics below.

Again, I expect the atmosphere to cool downward as the snow falls due to the cold upper low.  This means, temperatures will likely be around freezing or a degree or two higher.  The best chance for accumulations will be in the higher elevations where they can tap into the colder air.  Also, if snowfall intensity is great enough, it could lead to accumulations even if the temp is 33 or 34.   None of this is set in stone and can still change easily which is why I urge you to check back here, follow on facebook: Todd Yakoubian, and twitter @katv_weather

Futurecast doesn't show much, but what I like about it is the location of the snow.  I think it will be possible to fall from Mena to Mountain Home.  ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS!  You might be asking about central Arkansas?  Right now, accumulating snow does NOT look good.  It IS possible for a few flakes to fly.  This can always change and I'll keep you updated.
The NAM indicates the higher elevations of northern Arkansas could see 1-3'' of snow

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

No accumulating snow for central AR? :( But.. But Snowbirdbob said its possible the LR area could get 1-3 inches! *teardrop*

NOAA Winter Guidance