Saturday, February 18, 2012

Weekend Wet Weather Update


12:15 PM Saturday Update... As mentioned below and on Saturday Daybreak, this system will have two round of rain for Arkansas.   We continue to see some rain for the south half of the state this afternoon and that could include some portions of central Arkansas.  The rain chances decrease the further north you live so it's not too wet today for most.

The best chance for rain arrives tonight as the upper level storm system pulls across the state.  It still looks too warm for anything but rain, except for far northern Arkansas where a mix could occur.  As the low strengthens east of Arkansas, winds will increase tonight.

Check out the maps below...

The new run of "Futurecast" does indicate some minor accumulations tonight for far northeastern Arkansas.  This would mainly be confined to grassy surfaces and elevated objects.  If this does occur, it would melt rapidly Sunday morning.

At 3AM, this hi res model shows most of the state covered up in rain.  Notice the small areas of blue (snow) embedded in north central Arkansas.  The "540" line we watch is the red dashed line and it's moving south, but the moisture is moving out.  Notice the surface low in MS.  That's the area enclosed in the brown line in central MS.  The isobars are tightly packed around this low indicting breezy conditions developing tonight.
By 6AM Sunday, there continues to be a mix or change over to some very wet snow across far northeastern Arkansas while most of the rain is exiting the state.

It continues to look like rain will overspread the state Saturday with the chance for any snow confined to far north central and northeast Arkansas. When you look at the set up, it would lead you to believe there would be a good chance for a change over to accumulating snow across northern and northeastern Arkansas.  However, when you look at the data closely, it's hard to ignore what the models are telling us.. it's too warm at the surface for snow to make it all the way to the ground.  I always keep a wary eye on these situations as they can throw surprises your way.  If there's enough lift to cool the atmosphere and drop the freezing level closer to the surface, then it's a whole new ballgame.  But like I said, it's hard to ignore what the data says.  This will be mainly a cold rain!  There should be two batches of rain.   The first will mainly affect the southern half of the state Saturday morning then central Arkansas into the afternoon.  So if you live in northern Arkansas, your chance for rain will be lower today, but should increase tonight.  The second batch will arrive with the upper level storm system tonight with widespread rain for the entire state.

As the low pressure moves to the east and strengthens, winds will pick up tonight out of the north anywhere from 10-20 mph and gusty.  The system will finally pull away with some clearing Sunday.  Sorry snow lovers, it doesn't look good this time.  However, there's still some winter to go before spring arrives.

Futurecast shows the the first batch of rain increasing from south to north Saturday.  The leading edge should enter central Arkansas late this morning into the afternoon.Futurecast
By 7 PM, the upper level low will be moving into Arkansas from the west and southwest.  IF the surface temperature was about 5-10 degrees cooler, the rain would have a better chance at changing over to snow, but that's not what the data is telling us.
By 11 PM, most of the state is covered up in rain as the upper level low moves through the region.  Some of the rain could be moderate across central Arkansas.  Futurecast indicates some of it could begin to mix with and change to snow on the northern edge (blue area) near the Missouri border.
Futurecast shows the highest rainfall amounts across southern Arkansas with some places receiving more than 1''.
HPC shows basically the same thing.  Higher rainfall amounts will stay across the south.


Anonymous said...

This is it. We're doomed. No more winter. Our chance is almost gone. Now we must wait 10 months for another hopeless winter.

Anonymous said...

I just had a dream last night that there was a 40% chance of wintry precipitation in the 7 day forecast.

One can only dream, I suppose.

Anonymous said...

Snowbirdbob! Whatever happened to that "arctic outbreak" you've been talking about this whole winter?! Now you're giving up on us?!

SnowbirdBob said...

I havent given up,Feb.25-March10,...Major Cold & The poss. Of Winter weather..I was just frustrated with this winter..but,my feeling something huge is on the horizon..Its just a matter of time..