Monday, March 12, 2012

March Madness. Record Breaking Warmth?!?


It looks like we're going to continue on the path of winter right into spring with well above average temperatures.  As I pointed out here last week, we will flirt with daily record high temperatures this week and beyond!  As a matter of fact, once we go into the following week, we'll really have to start paying attention to the possibility that this March could break into the top 10 warmest in Little Rock weather history.  It's definitely possible given the pattern we are going into.

I have examined the weather data for the end of this week and beyond.  If the upper level pattern amplifies like most models say, there is no way the GFS will be close to its forecast high temperatures late this week and beyond.  The model tries to trend towards climotology in the long term so it sometimes incorrectly lowers forecast temperatures.  The model shows highs in the mid and upper 70s, but I think we could be well into the 80s!!!!!!!

If March ended today, it would already be the 9th warmest on record and we have PLENTY of warm weather in the forecast.  This number will only inch its way higher in the list. 

Top 10 warmest March temperatures by average high
1. 2007 - 73.40 degrees
2. 1910 - 73.29 degrees
3. 1907 - 72.13 degrees
4. 1963 - 71.32 degrees
5. 1967 - 70.97 degrees
6. 1921 - 70.35 degrees
7. 1908 - 70.35 degrees
8. 1938 - 70.16 degrees
9. 1935 - 69.74 degrees
10. 1974 - 69.59 degrees

When you get this warm, this early, something may break loose!  While this is VERY much in the long term, in 8-10 days, we better watch out for the possibility for some rough weather.  There will be a strong trough of low pressure across the western United States.  How and when this ejects to the east is a big question.  As we are in our primary severe weather season, this must be watched.  However, like I said, this is in the long term and there's so much that can change.  We all know how bad the computer models can be even in the short term.  However, that's the purpose of this blog!  I want to give you as much insight as possible into the things that I look at and watch.

Record high temperatures this week.  We'll fall just short of these more than likely
This is the GFS 500 mb pattern late next Monday (March 19th).  Most models agree there will be a central and eastern United States ridge keeping us well above average with our temperatures.  Notice the trough across the southwestern United States.  The question is, how will this eject out of that region of the country?  It could be nothing or something, but it has to be watched and we'll have plenty of warm and moist air in place.  I hope it's nothing!  This is typically a classic pattern for some rough weather, but it could change!!!
This is the European showing the same western trough and eastern ridge.  It's handling things a bit differently, but both agree some energy may eventually try to translate to the east by the middle of next week.  I'll keep you updated!

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