Thursday, March 08, 2012

Now What?


6:30 AM Friday Update...I have had a chance to review the latest model data this morning and thought I would give you an update.  I still think we'll be able to squeeze in 2 mostly dry days... today and Saturday  The front that brought the wet weather Thursday will get a push to the north as a storm system to out west advances eastward.  Rain and storms will overspread the state Saturday night into Sunday.  At first, it appears western Arkansas will have the best chance, but as the storm moves to the northeast, it will drag a boundary through the state.  This will gradually push an area of rain and storms into central and eastern Arkansas.  The American GFS and Euro both are more aggressive with the rainfall affecting much of the state, but the NAM wants to delay things some and give western Arkansas the majority of the wet weather.  So there are some uncertainties.  As I stated below, there will be some flooding concerns since we do have some soil moisture present now.  The amount it takes to cause flooding will be less.  However, the question now is, how much will fall Sunday and Monday?

As many of you know, I have been talking about a big time warm up next week with highs that could challenge daily record highs.  While I still think that's within the realm of possibilities, clouds with a few showers and storms will be possible as we head through the week.  This may keep afternoon highs in check, but that's in the long term and we'll see how that all pans out.  While there may be small rain chances by the middle to end of the week, I question how organized it will be.  As always, I'll keep you updated.

Check out the updated maps below.

HPC seems to think most of the rain will be under 3'' with this next round.  Notice the focus will be across the western half of the state.
This is the overnight run of the NAM.  Notice it focuses the heaviest rain to the west across Oklahoma.  This is round #2 which is scheduled to arrive Saturday night into Sunday.
The overnight run of the GFS is slightly different bringing more rain to the east into Arkansas.  So you can see, there are some differences as to how all this plays out late this weekend.  It should be noted that the Euro is more in line with the GFS so there is model support in bringing the rain more to the east.

Well by now you know if you have a leak in your roof.  You have until Saturday night into Sunday to fix it.

Round 1 of rain will come to an end early Friday morning.  With rainfall amounts throughout central Arkansas around 1-2'' and higher amounts further north, we could easily pick up a few more inches as the next wave of low pressure passes by.  Here's the good news... as we thought, the ground was dry enough to absorb most of the water with very little in the way of flooding problems.  Now the ground will have a couple of days to dry out, then the next batch of rain will arrive.  The amount it will take to cause flooding will be less, so we'll have to watch that situation.

How about that cold air that came into northern Arkansas late Thursday?!  It was cold enough to get sleet in many locations, but temperatures were well above freezing so there were no problems.  It's almost like winter was saying, "remember me? I'll be back next year and I won't be so nice."

Below you will find pictures and video from today's wild and wacky weather.  You will also find detailed information about what to expect later this weekend into next week.

Here's some video of the sleet in northwest Arkansas via Ricky Carney on twitter.

Newark, Arkansas hail from Lisa Parish Harlan

Doppler radar rainfall estimates show a swath of 4-5'' from west central into northeast Arkansas.  This is from Wednesday night until about 7 PM Thursday
This is the 500 mb pattern from the midday run of the GFS Thursday.  This is valid by noon Sunday.  Notice that area of red and orange over Texas.  That's the much talked about area of low pressure aloft.  Earlier in the week, I said these can be tricky forecasting and it proved itself to be tough.  It should finally get a kick to the east Saturday night into Sunday.  This will bring the front back to the north as a warm front.  Rain and thunderstorms chances will be on the increase Sunday, especially across the western half of the state.
At the surface, notice high pressure off the east coast of the U.S.  With low pressure ejecting out of the west, Gulf moisture will rapidly increase.  This surface map valid by midday Sunday shows rain and storms increasing across east Texas into eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.  This is round #2 of rain and some of it could be heavy.  While the threat for severe weather is low, that will have to be watched.
The HPC shows up to 2'' of rain Saturday at 7 PM through Sunday at 7 PM.  Notice the focus is western Arkansas with lesser amounts the further east.
As the area of low pressure ejects to the north, it will draw moisture and move the axis of high rainfall amounts towards central and eastern Arkansas.  This is the HPC total rainfall expected from 7 PM Sunday through Tuesday.


Gusty Gal said...

Crazy weather day for sure!! In light of the current "twitter bullying" of our dear friend Snowbird, I would like to share my heartfelt thoughts!

Ode to Bob

This winter, it seems, has slipped away,
But Snowbird Bob gave us hope each day,
The arctic air just wouldn't come down,
But our weather blog friend is no wintertime clown!
There's always next year for record cold air,
And blizzards and sleet storms and snow in our hair!
Give Bob a break, the models were lacking,
The long range forecast can just go packing,
Yes the CPC called the warm days just right,
But we kept hoping winter would put up a fight!
And Snowbird kept dreaming and wishing for cold
His predictions each time were exciting and bold!
So thank you, Dear Snowbird, for contributing each week!
You still are my most favorite Weather Blog Geek!!

I can't wait for next winter!!!

SnowbirdBob said...

Thank You Gusty Gal very Much..That means alot :)..& Thank you everyone that enjoys reading my comments & tweets..Yes, I had a down year..But, Todd, ask me once "What if your Wrong" I said..I will get right back up to fight another day..& That's exactly what I will do year after year..I have a very deep passion for the weather & really Winter Weather of The comments from Todd & Ninja are taken with no harm just for fun :)..You all take care & Until next Nov...God Bless & Enjoy your Spring & Summer..


jimmylee42 said...

Gusty Gal, that was a fun comment and you are a poet and don't we know it.

SBB, as you know the oscillation was not in our favor this year for the type of winter we would like to see. I have noticed from the history provided by the NWS that many times some of the coldest and snowiest weather for us comes a year or two later after record breaking winter mild seasons. Still going with the winter of 2013-14 as being the coldest and snowiest of this 6 year cycle, but next winter could have its moments of cold and snow. I still am impressed that we did not have one low temperature the entire winter below 20 degrees.

SnowbirdBob said...

Jimmylee, You may be right..I know I learned alot this winter about different things, Such as record Cold in Alaska dont me nothing for the lower 48..It takes alot of different things to get Cold air down here..& Its real hard when 80% of the Winter the Brutal Cold was on the other side of the globe..Hopefully next year will bring more excitement