We're all going to have to deal with this, but I really want to communicate the message to anyone who has outdoor plans that this could turn into a serious situation. Thanks to the WeatherNinja for pointing this out to me Saturday. There will be many campers, hikers, etc across the state that need to have a NOAA weather radio or even consider other plans. It appears the heaviest rain will fall across western Arkansas which as you know is a very hilly area of the state. This will contribute to more runoff into streams and rivers causing a possible rapid rise in water levels.
As we have talked about here on the Arkansas Weather Blog for more than a week now, this intense storm system means business. It will be a very slow mover as it cuts off from the main jet stream flow. This slow movement will produce copious amounts of rain over the same areas over a 2 day period. We are hoping this system speeds up and limits the amount of rainfall, but these cut off lows are often difficult to pinpoint the exact track and speed. Even at this time, there are still disagreements with various models as to where the axis of heaviest rainfall will set up.
There will also be a severe element to this storm system, but I think the flooding threat is much higher. The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Arkansas under a slight risk for severe weather and I'll explain below.
We are not expecting this rainfall to start until Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday. Remember, turn on your NOAA weather radios and/or sign up for WeatherCall 7.
Below are a few maps explaining the situation. I'll keep you updated!
|This is the official guidance from HPC showing 8'' + for western Arkansas over the next 5 days.|
|The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the western half of Arkansas, including Little Rock, for a slight risk of severe weather late Monday into Tuesday. The main threat will be hail and wind.|