Friday, May 25, 2012

Cautionsly Optimistic!

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DON'T FORGET TO ENTER THE 2012 SUMMER CONTEST.  DETAILS IN THE POST BELOW THIS ONE.

I teased the idea that temperatures could cool down with rain chances on my facebook page and this is the response I received from Daren Bolen, "Todd, if you can make that happen, I will name my next child after you".  I'll take him up on that however someone who knows Daren said this, "Ummm, Daren Bolen is my brother in law. His wife (my sister) had her tubes tied almost 9 years ago. How's that gonna happen? Lol."

It's the thought that counts, right?

Anyway, all humor aside, we will have a mini heatwave this Memorial Day weekend with NEAR record high temperatures.  Here are those records...

Saturday  98 (1964)
Sunday   96 (1964)
Monday 96 (1962)


Boy the 1960s set some hot records!  The Saturday record will be difficult to break, but the Sunday and Monday records have a better chance at being challenged.


Now onto the possibilities down the road.  Let's face it, the deeper we get into late spring and summer, the more difficult it becomes for fronts to penetrate far to the south.  However, it can happen!  Many times, it's not so much the temperature that comes down, but the humidity levels.  The high sun angle this time of year can warm us up rapidly.  If we can get some clouds and rainfall, that would really do the trick in holding down those readings.  


THIS IS ABOUT A WEEK DOWN THE ROAD SO MUCH OF THIS CAN AND WILL CHANGE, BUT LET'S HOPE THIS ACTUALLY PANS OUT!!!!

Check out some of the model data below...


The Friday morning run of the GFS shows an area of low pressure located across eastern Missouri and western Illinois with a front trailing south into the mid south.  This is valid next Thursday morning.  There's a surface high across the plains which would bring in a refreshing air mass.  The collision between these air masses could result in a round of rain and storms.
This is the upper level wind flow pattern.  This weekend will feature a massive, hot ridge of high pressure over the central and eastern United States.  However, by the middle of next week, it's replaced by a very significant trough of low pressure!  This would drive a front southward and bring relief.
Even the European model shows the front moving through late next Thursday into Friday with an area of refreshing high pressure building in from the plains at the surface.
HPC's manual progs show a cold front driving all the way to the Gulf Coast.  IF this verifies, it would wipe the high heat and moisture out of the air!
The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook indicates below average temperatures across the central and eastern United States with a good chance for well above average temperatures across the west.  This shows you they are buying into the ridge, trough pattern developing across the country which would dump cooler air in our neck of the woods.  Stay tuned and let's hope this happens.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

This is Arkansas, home to the land of insufferable heat. Hence the reason why we must be cautious, but miracles can happen, right?

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