Monday, June 04, 2012

Some Winners In The Rain Lottery, Others Not

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Where was this active weather in April and May?  What a roller coaster we have been on and will continue to ride over the next few days.

This weekend we had highs in the mid 90s with heat index readings reaching 100-105 degrees followed by explosive thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon.  Softball size hail was even reported in Lawrence county with several other reports of wind damage across northern Arkansas.

A front will will slowly ease to the south for the remainder of today (Monday) into Tuesday.  Rain and a few storms will be possible, but the focus will shift to the south and probably not be as widespread as it was for northern Arkansas.

By the time we roll into late Tuesday, humidity levels will begin to drop.  There are already signs this break in the moisture levels will not last long as heat and humidity may try to build again by the weekend.

Check out the model maps below and radar estimates..

Radar rainfall estimates over the past 24 hours shows northern Arkansas was the big winner.  Some of those pockets of higher amounts may have been contaminated by hail on the radar.  Nevertheless, it was northern Arkansas that saw some good rain.  I'm glad I kept my rain chances today (Monday) at 40% since the disturbance this morning weakened significantly.  There will continue to be a chance for a few storms, but the coverage should be less and focused across central and southern Arkansas.
By late Tuesday, dewpoint values will drop drastically.  This surface map from the North American Model indicates the front draped across southern Arkansas.  The cooler colors are dewpoints in the 50s and low 60s.  The black lines with barbs attached to them point to the direction from which the wind is coming from.  This is all northeasterly as high pressure builds in behind the front.  This will be a nice air mass for sure.

By Wednesday morning, the lower moisture values have overspread the state.  The bright reds (high moisture levels) are suppressed well to the south as nice high pressure builds into the region.

By Thursday morning, the nice air mass is still in place, but the surface high to the northeast is slipping away.  You can already see the return flow around it in Texas and the heat and humidity will begin to build back with time. 

1 comment:

jimmylee42 said...

Summers of 2010 and 2011 reminding me of 52 and 53. The problem is in the threesome summers of 52,53 and 54 the latter summer was the hottest of the trifecta. Hope 2012 isn't going to follow that triple header.

Yes, I remember those summers well, because I was outside playing in that heat all of those summers.

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