Sunday, July 22, 2012

Another Record Breaking Summer?

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN
TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

1:20 PM MONDAY UPDATE... IT SHOULD BE CLARIFIED THE NUMBERS BELOW APPLY ONLY TO METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER: JUNE, JULY, AUGUST.  THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THOSE MONTHS.
_________________________________________________________________

Going into this summer, I thought the third time was the charm.  There was no way we could have 3 horribly hot summers in a row.  While this isn't as hot as the past two, it's not a piece of cake either.

We're climatologically in the hottest time of the year.  Through August 21st, our average high temperature will hold at 93 degrees, then it will start to slowly decrease.

In terms of average daily high temperature, Little Rock is at 94.84 degrees.  If summer ended today, it would rank as the 7th hottest in this category in Little Rock weather history.

By average seasonal temperature, the combination of the high and low, we're at 82.89 degrees.  If summer ended today, it would rank as the 10th hottest in Little Rock weather history.

By average low temperature, we're not even in the top ten.  This is partially due to the drought.  The somewhat dry ground and air has allowed overnight lows to drop well into the 70s.  In contrast, that dry air also heats up quickly allowing daytime highs to soar.

Check out the graphics below.  The number of 100 degrees days could enter record territory if we don't get a significant pattern change.

With 6 days so far this summer of 105 degree temperatures or higher, we're already in the top 5 in that category.

Let's all hope the second half of summer is more tolerable!!!



16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jimmylee42 was right about the "trifecta" he was talking about! Only the third summer isn't the hottest as I recall him suggesting.

Oh, and to SnowBirdBob, I have a question.

Why do you do forecasts for Arkansas when you live in Louisiana? Is it because your fellow "weather geeks" reside in Arkansas? And because you're "forever alone" in Louisiana?

Anonymous said...

In regards to weatherninja's tweet mentioning the possibility of an El Nino. It seems quite feasible because on the Accuweather forums for the 2012-2013 winter outlook (started June 2011 LOL) everyone is confident that an El Nino will arise.

And I've already said this before, I think SnowBirdBob would be interested in joining the discussion. Either he didn't read the comment long ago or he simply ignored it.

Anonymous said...

As a senior student of 2012-2013, I am extremely hopeful that this winter is similar to 2010-2011. Missing out on many days that I wouldn't have to make up? That would be great.

SnowbirdBob said...

I do forecast for Arkansas because Louisiana has really no Real Winter Weather..The State of Arkansas has all kinds of big weather events..

To: The other guy or girl... Which comment are you talking about..I didnt ignore it...I dont spend alot of time reading the comments unless its the Winter..

To those of you out there that do enjoy reading my Tweets & Blog Comments..Thank You Very Much! I really enjoy doing it..But, Here lately its seems that I am getting pushed around a little..I am feeling like I am an Outsider...I may keep posting on the Blog & Tweeter..Or I may give it up all together..I am really in the process now...I think Todd needs to put up a Poll for SnowbirdBob..That ask..Do we still want SnowbirdBob or Does he need to stay South during the Winter..Let the Poll decide if I stay or I go..

Have a Great Evening :)
SnowbirdBob

Michael Hook said...

Looking at some of the latest data, it does appear an El Nino (warming of the waters in the Pacific) is developing and the forecast is for it to continue through the winter of 2012/2013. How strong will it be is yet to be determined, but the effects should bring stormy weather to Arkanas in from fall through the winter. By stormy, I mean above normal precipitation. This could be in the form of showers/tstorms with some winter weather mixed in. Temperatures will more than likely be mild but cold air will still invade the state. I like our chances of seeing some ice/snow with an active subtropical jet supplying moisture up and over cold air that does come down. But that is well in the future and there are many variables in play. Right now I would settle for a front to move into the state and stall out giving way to afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

As far as SnowBirdBob goes..one day he'll learn. It's not both Todd and myself are conservative in forecasting. I used to go out past a week sometimes, but have learned that forecasting short term is long enough and that long term forecasting has a very low sucess rate. Oh yeah, once in a while someone will be correct but the overall likelyhood isn't very good. I mean if I knew exactly when a cold front or snow event, hurricane, or severe weather outbreak was going to occur more than a week away, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be writing on this blog right now.

People like to dream when it comes to snow and SBB gives them some hope. But for myself, I would better serve those who follow me with as accurate information that I can provide. Do people depend on my forecasts, probably not. But I can tell you I don't put them out just for fun (other than the summer/winter contests..which I won the summer last year and almost won the winter this year)

It is about credibility. Just log onto #arwx during severe weather events and you will see all kinds of information that makes you wonder. I am very cautious of who I retweet or take information from when I'm out chasing severe weather or snowstorms. My main goal is to provide accurate information back to those who follow me on twitter, this blog, the National Weather Service and local media.

I know this is long, but Snowbird..you should concentrate on providing useful, reliable forecasts that people can use to plan, or in some cases, prepare in advance of inclement weather. In the world we live in, this is where people are coming for thier information. If you post (for fun) that a major snowstorm is going to hit or a tropical storm is going to strike, those that don't know you and take it as an accurate forecast might make or change plans based on your forecast. Remember a few weeks ago, you said a tropical system would impact the gulf coast. I had to field questions from people that were thinking about changing thier vacation plans. You would serve the public well by adding your thoughts to statements like that. Not just a hyped event. Let us know why/what you're thinking to make such a forecast. Models, trends, etc.

You're a good friend and we bash each other around once in a while..well more than once, but hey..you love LSU what can I say.

Keep on making those forecasts, just work the models and fine tune a bit. Don't just put something out there to hype or "be first". Be accurate..use those accuweather maps.

Give the people the SBB forecast but explain it a little bit.

And know that I've had to eat crow many times but I learn from it only to serve the people of Arkansas better.

Ninja

Now let's get some rain in for the country!!!

Anonymous said...

Well said, Micheal. Your post actually makes me want to check your twitter more often now.

In your first paragraph, it would sound like you'd have posted it in the Accuweather forums for the 2012-2013 winter outlook thread! Only, there has been the occasional weather jargon which I find rather difficult to understand. Still enjoy reading the new posts daily.

And hey! Todd didn't approve my comment regarding my extreme hopes for this winter being similar to 2010-2011 since I'm going to be a senior and won't have to make up any school days! Prejudice against minors? Hmmm...

Well, anyways. I am glad that you have posted this, Micheal. Good to see that I'm not the only one who thinks Snowbirdbob should probably stop giving us false hope.

Your 2nd paragraph really clears things up. It does explain Snowbirdbob's low success rate in accurately predicting weather. Combine that with wishcasting and bringing up others' hopes, and you've got credibility issues as you have stated.

I am confident that Weatherninja's inspiring speech for Snowbirdbob will mold him into a new and improved forecaster!

SnowbirdBob said...

Ok...Its a done deal..All of my future forecast will deal with no Hype...The only reason I did that is to spice things up a little..Its on Now...lol...My hardcore forecasting Skills will be put into full effect...By the end of 2013..WeatherNinja will have to eat so much crow..He will be sick of the word "Crow"..lol..I will have over 10,000 followers on Twitter by the end of 2013..You Shall See..I will have the most accurrate & Detailed forecast in the Southern US..I have spent 10,000 Plus Hours in School,Studing Models & Maps..Past Weather Events..Etc...Let's see how I do..It will be Mr.SnowbirdBob from now on ;)..I know I will still fail at times.. but even the best of us do..No one is Perfect here on Earth..So..set back & hang on for a Changed Snowbird..I will still go out on my limbs a bit..That is something I cant control..lol..I do respect you Ninja..But,...I will have to let my passion of the Weather show its true colors..One other thing..I will only predict Winter Weather Events in the future..& Yes, I am a LSU fan..At least thats one thing I win at ;)& Yes, In the future when I do predict winter weather events, I will give my detailed info in the Comment Section of the Ark Weather Blog.

Over & Out
SnowbirdBob

Mitchell McDill said...

Is the climate data for the past two summers logged somewhere to compare with this summer? I have heard some meteorologists say this summer isn't really that much hotter than last year but I can't hardly believe that.

Anonymous said...

Comment #3 (Anonymous) and Comment #4 (Snowbirdbob) were approved AFTER Weatherninja's lengthy post even though they were both posted BEFORE his was!

Someone has confused the concept of approving in chronological order...

Anonymous said...

I just realized how lucky we are to have Todd and this weather blog here in the state of Arkansas. I googled (enter northern state here) weather blog and did not find a single blog.

I guess that's the only con of moving up north. But it would be well worth it! One day.

Anonymous said...

Todd's query: What's your preference? 100 degrees for 3 straight months or 30 degrees for 3 months?

Answer: 30 degrees 24/7!

I'm sure many others agree, it's only sensible to choose 30 degrees for 3 months instead anyway.

SnowbirdBob said...

Just an opinion here... Did you know that a Negative NAO can lead to Major Cold Outbreaks in the Winter Season & a Negative NAO can lead to Heat Outbreaks in the Summer Season...I know a that sounds strange..You would think that a Neg NAO in the Summer would lead to Cooler Temps...Not the Case..Taking a look at the current Models Trends..The NAO is still currently Moderately Neg..But, Does show signs of trending to a more Neutral NAO as we head into the 1st Week of August..Could that lead to Cooler Weather..Quite Possible..Also, We are currently headed deeper into an El Nina state..That could lead to less Tropical Activity in the Alantic..Which could effect our chances of seeing some much needed rain..Another note here is we could be heading into a Mild to Moderate EL Nina for the Winter of 2012-2013..That could be a good thing & a bad thing...Good thing is that we could get some much needed rain, Bad thing is that if we get into a Neg NAO with a Moderate EL Nina..This could lead to a over runing situation"Ice Storms" It also could lead to just plain snow too.. Which would be much better..Example's of Strong to Moderate El Nino years 1977-1978,1982-1983,1987-1988,1997-1998, 2002-2003..In many of those years we saw Major Winter Weather Events..To be Honest there is No Way to Predict 3-6 Months in Advance..But, We can look at Past Climate Data & get an Idea anyway..
So, I beleive if we can get the NAO to at least get to Neutral & The EL Nino to stay weak..We could see a break in the Heat & Much More Rain chances as we head into Mid-August...

We Shall See..Thanks for Reading
SnowbirdBob

Anonymous said...

-73 in Arkadelphia, again.

Anonymous said...

I have a question for you weather smarty pants. The national forecasts (weather underground, weather.com etc) have been forecasting about 5 degrees cooler for Clarksville AR than it actually is. For example today they forecast 100 and it's 106. This has been a consistent error. Is it because we are just so bone dry here? We have really only had 1 good rain since May (at least at my farm) and many trees are losing leaves and turning brown. Do the models not take into account the soil moisture? Thanks for your help! Kim

Anonymous said...

Hey, I just realized something! Doesn't Todd change the background of the blog in correspondence to every season? This current background was used in spring, so where's the one for summer?

Ah, well. Nobody likes summer anyway.

Anonymous said...

Now it's -74 in Arkadelphia.

Octo-BRRR