Thursday, August 09, 2012

A Double Dose of Cool Air?

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN
TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

It's sad when getting temperatures back to average or even just a couple of degrees below it makes us happy, but that's exactly what we have starting Friday into the rest of your weekend. The lower humidity values will also be nice.  Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s statewide.  Did you know we haven't had a day with below average temperatures since July 14th?  That's amazing to go almost an entire month with temperatures well above average.

It's August and you know it will not last long.  The heat and humidity will make a return as early as the beginning of next week.  But as I said on Daybreak Thursday morning, it looks like the back of the heat wave may have been broken.  I want to be clear, there WILL be more hot weather, but I think the extreme, prolonged heat which lasts for days could be finished.  I HOPE!!!! WE ALL HOPE!!!

The heat next week looks like it may not last all that long.  I don't like forecasting beyond 7 days, but looking at the American GFS model and the European model, there are signs another front could sweep across the state delivering another nice air mass.  I urge caution, because this could change drastically, but in a summer like this, we look everywhere we can for lasting relief.

For all those in the 2012 Summer contest, good luck!  I'll be updating very often as we only have a few more weeks to go.

Check out the model maps below

This is the Thursday run of the European model valid Friday August 17th.  This shows another area of high pressure in blue coming out of Canada at the surface.  The area of low pressure to the east of it has a trailing cool front entering northern Arkansas.  The upper level winds are configured in a way which would allow the front to push through the state.  There would also be some hope with rain along the frontal boundary.  However, this being 7 days away may not have a chance at verifying.
The European upper level map shows the ridge over the western United States with a trough developing again and pushing into the Great Lakes.  This pattern COULD bring more relief.
The American GFS valid at the same time at the surface shows that area of high pressure as well over Canada with the front trailing from the low east of it.  The front is located near northern Arkansas and all that green represents some rainfall and thunderstorm activity.  Let's HOPE!
The GFS is similar to the European in the upper levels.  The ridge is across the west with the developing trough across the Great Lakes.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wait a second, Todd tweeted the following link

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

that the NOAA is on board with the idea of a double dose of nice air, but that graphic doesn't even apply to us! I mean sure, at least it shows average for us, but certainly not a cool down?

I mean, I don't want to doubt the meteorologist King Todd Yakoubian, but looking at the map, common sense tells me there isn't a second cool down for us.

Anonymous said...

What can we expect our winter to be like throughout Arkansas?

Anonymous said...

Todd! It's been 5 hours since your dramatic tweet: "WOW! I LOVE the long range models for next weekend. Hoping they verify. If it does, we'll have "fall fever"

How much longer are you going to keep us in suspense?! What does that mean? What are the possible temperatures that the models are hinting at? By the sound of it, you act as though we might get lower 80's and maybe even upper 70's for high temperatures!

NOAA Winter Guidance