Thursday, August 16, 2012

"Aw-Gust"

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3:45 PM Thursday Update... Fort Smith hit 100 degrees today so that puts Amanda Paige in the drivers seat for contest #1.  I will update the numbers Friday.  I'm having some problems accessing the contest page and it should be sorted out by the morning.

I really don't have much to change from what I posted earlier.  I still think the best chance for storms Friday will be across central and southern Arkansas and a few could be strong and maybe severe.  These will be the hit and miss variety.  The front will stall to the south with upper impulses bringing rain chances Saturday AND Sunday with southern Arkansas having the best chance. 

The strong trough of low pressure for this time of the year will keep the front to the south.  With the precipitation and clouds around, we could be looking at the coolest weekend this summer with highs only in the 70s to low 80s.  While the temperatures will moderate next week, it will be nice for this time of the year.  Are we done with the 100 degree heat?  I keep getting asked that question.   Right now, I would say no.  I still think some locations could touch it again this summer, but the prolonged and extreme heat looks to be over.... I hope!!!

Check out these great maps from CPC...

NOAA's 6-10 day outlook shows a good chance for below average temperatures for the central portion of the country due to the amplified jet stream pattern delivering cooler air from Canada.  The average high for this period is in the lower 90s.
The 8-14 day outlook looks good as well.  However, I do expect temperatures to moderate some.   But the trend is our friend.  No extreme heat for awhile!  Average readings during this time period is in the lower 90s. 


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That's my attempt of coming up with a catchy title to a blog post.  I'll admit, it's not great, but it's what the weather might create. LOL

Thunderstorms will roll through portions of the state with wind GUSTS and some hail possible over the next couple of days.  More on that in just a little bit.

The 2012 summer contest is almost over and at this point there is no winner in contest number one.  Read 2 posts down for the specifics.  We almost hit 100 in Fort Smith Wednesday and that would have broken a tie and put Amanda Paige in the drivers seat to win, however, the high temperature was 99.  Watch their temperature again today because it's going to be close.  One more way to break the tie is with rainfall.  Little Rock will have to receive more than 2.5 inches through the end of the month to decide a winner in the tiebreaker.  Also, despite the cooler air in the forecast this weekend into next week, there's plenty of time to warm it up back to100 by the end of the month.  So let's watch and see how it plays out.

The much talked about frontal boundary will move into the state late today into tonight.  The first area with the best chance for scattered thunderstorms will be the north and there's a slight risk for severe weather in that section of the state.  The main threat will be wind GUSTS and hail.  There are signs the activity will weaken overnight as it pushes to the south.  The front will still be located in the state Friday.  Depending on its exact location, there could be more thunderstorm activity which develops along and ahead of the boundary.  The front will stall across the south Saturday with a piece of energy diving down from the northwest.  This should produce a good chance for showers Saturday BEHIND the boundary.  IF this happens, the combination of our location behind the front, clouds, and rain could keep temperatures well below average.  I'm talking about highs only in the 70s and low 80s!!!!!!

I thought I would use the simulated hi res NAM to explain the situation best.  Just please remember, these simulations are not perfect, but it helps show you the weather.

By 10PM Thursday, a large area of thunderstorms will be in northern Arkansas.  Some of these could be severe with wind and hail the main threat.
By 4 AM, the storms have weakened and decreased significantly.  The front will be moving into the state and we'll watch for more development into Friday afternoon.
This is valid at 4 PM Friday.  Notice this model shows storms developing across southern Arkansas with showers up north.  I have seen other models which develop the storms further into central Arkansas so where they increase is not certain yet.
By 7 PM Friday, the storms area still across southern Arkansas, but there is some development across the west.
Late Friday night into Saturday morning may be our best chance for widespread shower and storm activity as a disturbance rolls out of the northwesterly flow aloft.  The state is covered up with rain and storms.  Let's hope this verifies!!!
By 1 PM Saturday, the focus of the rain is across the south.  The combination of the front being located there, clouds, and rain, could bring us the coolest day in months with highs only in the 70s and lower 80s.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wait a second, didn't snowbirdbob have around 400 followers on twitter? Anyone else notice that he suddenly has 5,561 followers?!

victoryvintageb said...

"Ahh..gust"..pretty good there Todd! mrsguru

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