1:40 PM Monday Update... First thing, I can't thank all of you enough for getting your weather information here on the Arkansas Weather Blog. This marks 6 years I have been doing this and I love seeing the numbers grow and grow. It just confirms my belief you love the weather as much as I do.
Now onto what the computers are saying and what I believe. If you get a chance, make sure your read the original blog post today. It does look like a storm system will influence Arkansas weather Christmas Day and on the 26th. While I show you the specific model information, take it with a grain of salt. This far out in the forecast, it's going to be wrong! However, I want to show you the things we look at when making forecasts so you know what we're watching and the possibilities that exist down the road. With that said, here's an update from the European model run this morning.
You will see Let's get ready to ruuummmmmmbbbbbbbllllleeeeee. We actually have something to watch Christmas week! Before you get too excited, this storm has been on the computer models for awhile and they all show mostly rain. HOWEVER, let's dream okay? We can do this because the overnight run of the European model does show something interesting happening late Christmas Day here in Arkansas, but the GFS is just a rain maker.
Remember, take these computer models with a grain of salt! If you recall, last week I showed you data which pointed to snow in portions of northern Arkansas on Tuesday morning and that was completely wrong. So getting these models to accurately predict a storm more than a week away is absolutely impossible, but like I said, let's dream. It will be interesting to follow this as we go into Christmas week.
|Here's the latest GFS valid Christmas day at noon.... Rain, Rain, Rain, and more rain. There's snow, but it's well north over Kansas, Nebraska, the Dakotas, etc. The surface low is further north and therefore we're in the warm sector.|
I have seen the models show storms in the long range and then days later, it's gone and nothing happens. Let's just stay patient and see what happens. I'll keep you updated!