Friday, December 28, 2012

A Few More Flakes Possible


10:15 AM Friday Update... The new 12Z NAM is in and there's now agreement between many of the models.  There could be some small snowfall accumulations across northern Arkansas late today into tonight.  While the modeling doesn't show much around Little Rock, it is possible to have a few flakes fly around here.

Here's the Friday AM run of the NAM indicating some snowfall accumulating to 1-3 inches across the far north into the northeast corner of the state.  Looks like there could be a bit more according to this model near the Missouri border.
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Before I get into the weather details for Friday night, I just have a few things I need to let you know.  The numbers for the winter weather contest have NOT been posted due to the lack of data from Hot Springs.  Due to various problems, that amount will be delayed getting into the National Weather Service.  I talked to them Friday morning and they tell me it will be in soon.  As soon as it is, I'll update the contest.  Without Hot Springs, the combination of Little Rock, North Little Rock, and Harrison is 20.9 inches. That will eliminate many, but keep the contest very interesting for many others!  

I'll resume regular blogging as soon as my power is restored at home.  That's where I do the majority of it.  I'm probably going to have to wait even longer for Internet to become available as well.  So please be patient.  I'll do what I can from work.  

Late today into tonight, there will be a disturbance moving through the region which could change some of the rain over to sleet then light snow before ending.  I do not think this will be a major event whatsoever!  I guess after 10-15 inches, just a dusting to an 1'' isn't a big deal anymore huh?   There will be some light accumulations possible, especially across northeast Arkansas.  Here are a few of the computer models and what they're saying.

The RPM indicates light snow accumulations for north central into northeast Arkansas with a few flakes as far south as Little Rock

Our model "Futurecast" shows small amounts across northern Arkansas Friday night with the most of towards the NE corner.  Even though it shows LR getting nothing, I still think a few flakes could fly.

The NAM shows very small amounts for the northern half of the state with the most across the northeast corner.  According to this model, there could be a couple inches up there.


The GFS I think has a very realistic look at what's going on.  Look at the minor amounts for central Arkansas.  The band of snow starts for north central areas with just small amounts and a bit more across the northeast.


3 comments:

jimmylee42 said...

Todd-Thanks for all the great info from you and all the contributors on your blog. This event was not the deepest snow to fall in LR, but I think it was the most snow to fall on top of an ice storm that I can remember. Big snow on the backside of the low. Here in west LR it was snowing at the rate of 2 inches an hour at one point. First time ever I noticed deeper snow pack, especially in December, here than at Porcupine Lodge in the UP of Michigan. They had about 5 inches on the ground Dec. 26th and LR weather station had 10 inches.

Anonymous said...

Doesn't anyone else wish we could have a winter storm like THAT every year? Would be nice.

Anonymous said...

Todd - weren't you going to post a new post on something pertaining to Arkansans coming together after you got power back?

NOAA Winter Guidance