Christmas Day Snow?

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN

TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

2PM Friday Update... Yes, the two main long range computer models continue to show rain changing to snow late Christmas Day in central Arkansas.  The National Weather Service in North Little Rock has an amazing statistic on their web page.  Little Rock has not had snow which accumulates on Christmas day in more than 70 years! They are NOT counting a trace.  Can you believe that streak COULD be broken?!?  Remember, they are saying snow ON Christmas day.  You may remember years like 2004 and 1983 when snow was on the ground from a PREVIOUS snow.  Here are the years and stats. below...

1939) .1'' of snow
1926) 2.5'' of snow
1913) 1.5'' of snow
1897) 1'' of snow

So if we get more than 2.5'' of snow on December 25th, it will be the most snow on Christmas in Little Rock weather history which begins in 1875.

Both the GFS and Euro point to accumulating snow, but the track of the low pressure is CRUCIAL in determining who gets what and how much.  That's why it's wayyyyyyyyy too early to pinpoint amounts at this point in time.  I don't want to disappoint anyone because some will be singing white Christmas and there's the possibility others won't.  Stay tuned!
____________________________________________________________________   

 
We are within that 3-5 day window so the computers are starting to come in line.  However, specifics can and will change between now and then.  I absolutely hate saying this because I know you get tired of it, but don't get excited yet, the data will continue to flip flop.

There are still questions as to where the area of low pressure tracks and the intensity of the cold air the system will have to work with.  Actually, let's be honest and remember someone already knows exactly what's going to happen and we're just trying to make educated guesses. 

I think it's safe to say at this point that the severe weather potential in Arkansas is very low due to the southern track of low.  If that comes back north, we'll have to revisit that, but right now that scenario looks quite low.

This is the European model by 6PM Christmas Day.  I think we're getting to the point where you understand what it's saying.  The surface low is over far western Mississippi.  Look at the precip (in greens to red) to the left of the blue dashed line.  That's moisture getting thrown into the cold air portion of the storm system and likely falling as something frozen.  The European here implies snow from the Red River of TX and OK right through the western half of the state.  As the low pulls away and the cold air comes it, this shows a change from rain to snow across the remainder of the state Christmas night into early Wednesday morning.

Here's the GFS at midnight on the 26th.  The low is east of AR (black closed line) and the precipitation is getting thrown back into the cold air which is advancing through Arkansas.  This implies snow for the about the northwestern half of the state with the transition occurring further east early Wednesday morning.

PLEASE TAKE THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT!!!!! I don't withhold information here on the Arkansas Weather Blog.  This is sooooooooooooo preliminary and will change..... guaranteed!  BUT the GFS 120 hour snowfall accumulation map looks promising and is agreeing with the Euro as to where the corridor of snow could fall.  This ONLY takes into account the beginning of the storm system and future model runs will encompass the entire event and I'll post that when available.

The European model shows almost the same corridor.  This is snowfall from 6PM to 9PM Christmas Day.

In summary, DON'T GET TOO EXCITED JUST YET!  However, this is the most promising snowfall on Christmas I have seen in years.  Only 1 person knows what will happen and we'll continue figure it out as we get closer.