11:15 AM Wednesday Update... Another round of data and another solution. First thing I want to talk about is the huge snowstorm which will start today and last through Thursday across the plains into the Great Lakes. This fresh snowpack could influence our temperatures here in Arkansas. With a strong west to northwest wind Thursday, the air will flow across this fresh layer of snow into Arkansas. This will help keep it chilled so our forecast highs may need to be taken down a couple degrees Thursday and Friday.
|Winter storm warnings and blizzard warnings up north.|
Now onto a quick update about next week. I think it's very obvious right now there will be a system Tuesday into Wednesday. I know you don't like to hear me say this, but how this impacts our weather is not fully known yet. It still looks like rain to me. Depending on the track of the low, thunderstorms could also be a factor, especially across southern and eastern Arkansas according to the latest GFS on Tuesday. IF there's a change over to snow, the GFS says it will be northern Arkansas only. The GFS also suggests that we would get "dry slotted" Tuesday night into Wednesday, then wrap around moisture would bring flurries and snow showers to far northern Arkansas. Too early to get too specific, but that's what it says.
Here are the maps from the GFS. Below you will find the Euro which is a little more aggressive with moisture on the back side.
|By Christmas morning, the GFS says RAIN! the low is tracking across southern AR with heavy rain and storms there. Look on the back side. There's snow north of the blue dashed line in OK and KS as cold air gets pulled around the low.|
Sorry, but I just don't have much time for a big update this morning. Hopefully later today I will. As I have said, we will not have a good handle on a dynamic system like the one next week until we get to within the 3-5 day window. The models continue to have problems dealing with the storm and the track and I expect future model runs to struggle. For all you snow lovers, there's still hope late Christmas or the 26th. Nothing is guaranteed, but at least there's a storm on the table to watch.
Below is the overnight run of the European model