Wednesday, December 05, 2012

Flip The A/C To Heat


Some of you laughed at me when I sent this tweet out on Tuesday, November 27th.

I know the WeatherNinja did.  While you may not admit it, most of you turned it on in your car, your home, or both.  I did!

Look at these high temperatures for the first 4 days of this month.

December 1st... 76 degrees
December 2nd... 74 degrees
December 3rd...  77 degrees
December 4th... 72 degrees

THAT'S ALMOST 19 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE... AMAZING!

But you know the rule, "For every action, there's an equal and opposite reaction."  While I don't think this number will go to average as fast as it went above average, we will trend much cooler next week as a strong system will deliver a dose of December reality.  While not SUPER cold, temperatures will go to average or even a little below average as we go into next week.  By the way, mid 50s are where we should be for afternoon highs.  Mother nature has a great way to balance herself out doesn't she?

The computer models really have been all over the place as to how this transition will occur in terms of timing, strength, and what weather to expect.  It has gone from heavy rain and severe storms to a lighter rain to... etc, etc. etc.

Anyway, I thought I would give you an update as to what the 2 main long range computer models indicate as of Wednesday.  We'll look at the GFS and the European.  Just know like I said in the previous post... THIS CAN AND WILL CHANGE AT LEAST 10,000,000 MORE TIMES. ( a little sarcasm, it's more like 100,000,000,000 times. Catch my drift? )

This is the Euro at Saturday at 6PM.  the front is located through far northern AR as indicated by the isobars with all the cold air still well north of the state.  The white line is called the "540 line".  This is a good indicator the rain/snow line.  While I don't expect snow, it does show the where the push of colder air is located.  This would bring a few showers to Arkansas Saturday with temperatures still well above average.
This is noon Sunday on the Euro.  The front is on the move as cold air is surging south through the plains.  The front is in Arkansas with rain and storms.   Notice how the black lines BEHIND the front are tightly packed together!  The pressure gradient will deliver a very cold wind once the front pushes through your location.
The Euro by early Monday morning now shows the front east of AR.  This is faster compared to previous model runs.  It's very windy and much cooler.  Look at that "540 line" in NW AR.  Most of the moisture will be gone at this point.  It wouldn't surprise me to have flurry or two near the Missouri border.
Now the GFS!  Saturday at 6 PM it shows the front right through Arkansas and not moving.  This will produce areas of rain and rumbles of thunder.

The GFS by noon Sunday has a bit more of a low pressure center along the front in AR with the trailing front through eastern Texas.  This would lead to a warm start to Sunday, with rain and a few thunderstorms.  Here too the cold air is rushing down the plains and poised to move into the state.

The GFS early Monday morning really cranks up the area of low pressure at the surface, but it's well northeast of AR and the front is now well east as well and in Alabama.  The push of colder air is stronger here than the Euro at the same time.  Notice that  "540 line" is through most of Arkansas.  Those black lines are isobars and it's cold and windy Monday morning!



So to sum it up.  It still looks like a good round of rain and storms.  First areas of rain to start the weekend, then with the front Sunday followed by much colder and windy weather Monday.  The timing on both models is faster compared to previous days.

So here is what I have to say,  as we go into next week, flip the switch from A/C to heat!




1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I'll be rolling down my car window every morning starting Monday.

NOAA Winter Guidance