Sunday, December 09, 2012
Monday Morning Surprise?
You just gotta love Arkansas Weather. You know my saying, "Never Say Never To Arkansas Weather". It's probably one of the reasons why I grew up wanting to be a meteorologist. Our weather can change so drastically in such a short time! Today we had severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes and Monday, it's not out of the question for a few snowflakes! However, the chance is still small.
The NAM is at it again. Remember, this was the only model out there that had snowfall in the forecast Monday morning. However, the past few runs dismissed the chance. Now, it's showing some flakes once again with sleet as well. However, I still believe this will not amount to much if anything due to several factors. The first is the warm ground from the recent mild weather. Second, surface temperatures should be above freezing in central Arkansas and in the mid and upper 30s. However, I can see a situation for areas north and west of Little Rock in the higher elevations where a little accumulation happens on grassy surfaces....IF THE NAM WERE RIGHT! Remember, that's assuming this model has the right idea. Regardless, it won't last long and it will be light.
An area of low pressure aloft will move into Arkansas from the west. At the same time, there will be some moisture across the area so that some of it could be squeezed out of the air in the form of flurries or sleet pellets. The best chance for this is across the northwestern half of the state from near Mena to near Little Rock up into far northeastern Arkansas. Everywhere north and west of that line, has at least a small chance Monday morning.
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