Tuesday, January 15, 2013

All Aboard The Arctic Express

6:40 PM Tuesday update... Well that was interesting today huh?  It just shows you the worry I have had.  It only takes very little wintry precipitation to cause BIG problems.  Little Rock had .3'' and North Little Rock had .4'' which broke a daily snowfall record for NLR.  Once Hot Springs reports Wednesday morning, I'll update the winter weather contest for all of you waiting on that.  I'm still watching the Thursday system.  Even though the models look harmless, whenever you have something that strong come through, you watch it!  Moisture return is limited and looks mainly east of us.  We'll see.  Also, the models continue to show a minor late week warm up, then the arctic express makes another visit to Arkansas Sunday into Monday.   Also, I can't thank you all enough.  Today we surpassed 2 MILLION blog hits over the past 2.5 years.  I'm so glad you share my weather passion!  Words can't describe how much it means to me you come here and read this!  THANKS!
More later.  Have a good evening!


 You know I'm suppose to be on vacation right now, but I just can't stay away from this stuff sometimes.  I absolutely love forecasting winter weather, especially when you can get multiple events within a short period of time.  I guess the challenge is what drives me.  Anyway, southeast Arkansas as expected you're getting it again today.  As is usually the case, you deal with ice and not snow many times and today will be no exception to that rule.  With temperatures hovering around 30-32 degrees all day, amounts could exceed a quarter of an inch.  This would cause some power outages and some road issues as well, especially on the bridges and overpasses.  In my opinion, I don't think this will be to the extent of the Christmas storm in central Arkansas.  That was really incredible with ice, heavy snow, and wind.  So while I would expect some power to go out, I don't think we're looking at a situation like that... I HOPE!

For central Arkansas, we will be on the fringe of this and I think we could see a few snow flakes and some sleet.

Now onto the Thursday system.... Once again, I urge you to watch the video I posted a couple days ago.  You'll have to scroll down further for that.  The NAM was generating incredible snowfall amounts and I did NOT buy it.  All the other computer model schemes indicated a strongly positively tilted trough while the NAM was either neutral or negative with its various runs.  A positively tilted trough has its axis running from northeast to southwest.  This does not allow for moisture return and shunts most of it off well east... simply put.  The negative tilt does increase moisture flow for a significant storm.  With all that said, I'm still not writing this off!  These closed lows can still produce surprises and I'm going to keep watching it!  Right now, I think it's southern Arkansas which could see a few flakes of snow from it Thursday.   I'll keep you posted.

After that system, we'll get a lull where temperatures will actually moderate a little, BUT DON'T LET THAT FOOL YOU!!!!!  Another big chunk of arctic air will arrive early next week and it has the potential to be the coldest so far this season.  There are signs the area of cold high pressure will move in and out with yet another surge further down the road.  I'm getting tired now.... onto the maps.

This is the NAM Thursday morning at 3AM.  That's a strong area of low pressure aloft!!!!!!! At 500mb, you can see the tilt is positive, but as this scoots to the east, it does become negative and produces precip east of the state.  Even with this strong area of low pressure aloft, it can still bring surprises and I'm going to watch it carefully for you across southern Arkansas.  Once again, I'm not writing it off.... YET.  However, this is coming in line with all the other global models that show it dry.  We'll see.
This is the Euro late Monday next week.  There's a 1044 mb high in the Dakota's.  THAT'S COLD HIGH PRESSURE!  At one point this high reaches 1052mb which is incredible!  Anyway, the solid black lines surrounding this are isobars... lines of equal barometric pressure.  The front is past AR and extends from the black closed line in the Great Lakes (low pressure) southward into the TN Valley and back into south TX.  Air is flowing out of that surface high to the north and we have a strong northerly wind.  Once again, the Euro shows a wave of moisture behind it and the others do not.   We'll watch that.  If anything does fall, it would be snow.  However, it would not be heavy!
Next Tuesday morning the Euro shows the nation is in the deep freeze!  Look at that 32 degree line (white line) all the way into the deep south!  We're looking at lows in the teens and 20s across the state which is nothing we haven't already seen, but I think it could actually be a bit colder than this.  Also, wind chill factors will be BRUTAL!  Look at the air in the northern plains.  -20 to -30 !!!!!
And look at the Euro late Tuesday afternoon.  The freezing line is still south of Arkansas meaning highs will struggle to hit 32 according to this piece of data.  However, remember, we've been here before.  After the Christmas storm, it was just as cold for some of us.  This shot of arctic air then gets directed to the east, we could moderate a few degrees, then it's possible for more down the road.  I'll keep you updated.

1 comment:

J.Betnar said...

We have 3"+ in spots near Clinton on the ground. I got a peek at a EURO run that Ninja posted on facebook that predicted it. Looks like the EURO is doing well this winter, since it had the Christmas storm down well too...

NOAA Winter Guidance