This blog post is strictly about cold air and mostly NOT about any snow or ice. Forecasting precipitation in the long term is nearly impossible. I'm looking at trends on the various long range computer models and I see some specific trends that I feel confident enough to talk about here.
First, this week and most of next week will be our "January Thaw". We have an interesting system coming through here by the middle of next week that looks to be mostly a rain maker and a few thunderstorms thrown in as well. However, this storm looks to be closed off and these can throw curve balls. While the models weaken the cold air signature underneath the upper low, I think it's possible for a wintry mix depending on the track. That track is far from certain right now, but my best guess at this time is from Texas into eastern Oklahoma and maybe clipping northwest Arkansas. Most of us will stay in the form of rainfall with this, but it's at least worth watching to see what happens underneath that low.
Second, after that system departs, we'll have a very brief warm up as a new round of arctic air moves into the western United States and into the plains. That arctic air will surge south and COULD affect Arkansas by the end of next week thus ending our January thaw.
Third... and this is very iffy right now due to the long range, but it's at least possible for this cold air to stick around. It may come in waves, but this pattern looks sooooooooo much different than what we had last winter. There really is no comparison.
Like I said, I'm not going to speak about any precipitation chances other than the middle of next week. Once and IF I see anything, I'll let you know. Here are a few maps below which backs up what I'm saying above.