Thursday, February 28, 2013

Big Blast Of Cold Air and Beyond


The winter weather contest comes to an end tonight at midnight and it's looking very, very good for Darin Thomas as he will likely win the contest.  Darin, I have never met you, but you are one heck of a forecaster for two reasons.  Darin has predicted the exact amount of snowfall between the four cities at 32.3'' and came within .28'' of predicting the total rainfall between Little Rock and North Little Rock.  Even though he didn't need the tie breaker, that's AMAZING.  Congrats Darin early.  Remember, it's not official until midnight.  Darin will likely win the ipad 2, RadarScope app, WeatherGeek app, WeatherGeek t-shirt, and tickets to the Golden Corral!

Here's more interesting information about the meteorological winter which ends at midnight... Little Rock  and North Little Rock have almost quadrupled Harrison AND Fayetteville in snow!  Here are the preliminary final snow stats for meteorological winter 2012-2013

North Little Rock 10.9''
Little Rock 10.6''
Hot Springs 8''
Harrison 2.8''
Fayetteville (Not in the contest) 2.6''

Even though the meteorological definition of the winter season ends tonight, there's still more winter and interesting things to look at including a BIG blast of cold air and the storm I talked about on the 10th.  Anyone trying to forecast specifics on the March 10th storm should be taken to court for meteorological malpractice.  This could bring rain/storms, winter weather, just rain, ice, or a combination of all of the above.  We just don't know due to the long range nature of forecasting.  Heck, the storm could never materialize for all we know.  However, the models have been very consistent on seeing something in that time range.  The further we get into March however, the chance for winter weather decreases rapidly! 

Also, I expect a COLD weekend as a major trough of low pressure swings through and out quickly.  This will bring a round of light snow to northeast Arkansas late Friday into early Saturday morning. 

I have maps below detailing the weekend and the March 10th storm.

It's no secret that I love using the European model.  Here it is at noon Saturday and most of the state is in the 30s!  I don't expect readings to climb much higher than that.  With the wind, it will feel like teens and 20s.  The 32 degree line is across northwest AR at noon (white line).  The 40 degree isotherm is hugging the AR and LA border.
Sunday morning at 6AM, the Euro says it will be around 24 to 25 degrees in Little Rock.  What a way to start of March huh?  The freezing line is to New Orleans!!!!  BRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

By noon Sunday, it only recovers to the mid 40s!   Cold weekend ahead!

Now onto the March 10th system as seen by the Euro.  I will show you what it's saying, but DON'T COUNT ON THIS HAPPENING THE WAY  IT'S PRESENTED HERE!!!!!!!  Being in the long range, this will change soooooo much.  What you can take away from this is that there's something to watch.  This is March 9th at 6PM and it shows a very sharp boundary separating the cold and warm air from the TX panhandle through southern Missouri.  We would be in the warm sector with rain and storms according to this.  It would be a major snow/ice storm for the central plains.
Look at the Euro temperature map at this time.  The 32 degree line is well north of Arkansas.  The temperature gradient is incredible as winter and spring fight it out in the plains.  It goes from 60s in the TX panhandle to 20s and 30s in Kansas.

This is the GFS and I'm going to show you how variable back to back runs are on these models.  This is the 00Z run.  The surface low is suppressed wayyyyyy south into southern TX.  This is a cold rain or even wintry weather on the north side of the precip shield and big snows over west TX with the upper level low.  Do I buy this?  NO!  Look at the run just 6 hours later below.
6 hours later, the same model has a completely different idea with the surface low in NE OK.  (The black closed line)  This is rain and storms as we're in the warm sector.  My point, there's a storm around the 9th or 10th.  Forecasting specifics this far out is absolutely impossible!  Stay tuned.

No comments:

NOAA Winter Guidance