Tuesday, February 26, 2013

March To Roar In With a Chill


4:30 PM Tuesday Update... The leader board has changed again in the winter weather contest and Darin Thomas is on top of it.  Harrison reported an even 1'' of snow last night and this morning boosting the seasonal total between Harrison, Little Rock, North Little Rock, and Hot Springs to 32.3''.

Is it over?  Not so fast.  As I said, this COULD go down to the wire.  Don't rule out a dusting or a little more of snow between now and the time the contest ends Friday at midnight.  Small disturbances could spark a snow shower or two up there.  Lots of fun watching this!

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The storm system Monday and Tuesday played out as expected.  It was one of those wacky weather deals where severe thunderstorms with hail and wintry weather affected the state at the same time.  The hail looked like snow on the ground in many locations and I want to thank everyone for the hundreds of pictures sent in.  I have a couple video of the hail below.

As I write this, it's snowing in Harrison and the winter weather contest leader board could change again.  We have until midnight Friday morning until the end.  I think it's very possible for very small amounts to fall up there through the end of the week with the pattern we're in.

You know, I was amazed last week that the GFS was actually forecasting a high near 60 degrees today.  Yep, go outside and tell me how bad and wrong that prediction was.  What's even more amazing are some people bought it like a bass biting a plastic worm.

So what are we looking at down the road?  I have been shouting for the past few days, this could be the coldest beginning to March in a long, long time.  I want to thank the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock for this bit of information in their morning forecast discussion...

"IF FORECASTED TEMPERATURES VERIFY PERFECTLY /IN A FORECASTER/S
PERFECT WORLD/...THE FIRST FIVE DAYS OF MARCH AT LITTLE ROCK WILL BE
THE COLDEST IN QUITE SOME TIME. DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
THE COLDEST SINCE AT LEAST 2002."

There will be multiple disturbance in a strong northerly flow aloft which will bring shots of cold air and flurries to northern Arkansas.  Spring is on hold!  If cloud cover is present, then the very cold temperatures will be realized.  HOWEVER, due to the higher sun angle, any sunshine could boost temperatures a little, but it will still be quite cold for this time of the year.

I'll update the winter weather contest as soon as numbers come in!

Below are a could videos of the hail yesterday.  The first from Sharla William Orren in Hope and the second from Brian Emfinger near Ozark.




From Brian Emfinger

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NOAA Winter Guidance