Friday, March 15, 2013

Spring Break Gone Wild

I told ya winter isn't over and done with yet.  Being from Arkansas and remembering the recent devastating freeze in April 2007, much can happen around here this time of year.  Rarely does the weather flip from cold to warm and STAY warm.  Last year it did, but that was due to a very easy to recognize global pattern.  This year is a classic winter vs spring and they will fight it out.  Of course spring will win, it's just how many rounds will we need to go for that to happen?  Again this is VERY, VERY typical.  We can get some serious rounds of warm air only to have cold return and winter laugh at us.  The model data in the previous post was simply the European throwing a warning shot.  Long range details should never be trusted, but it was signaling winter isn't over by a long shot.

So far this month, Little Rock is about 3.5 degrees below average.  After Friday's near 80 degree weather, that number will definitely get closer to 0.  It may even go ABOVE average after what I'm about to show you for the weekend.  Remember, there are some private company forecasters who say March will be 6 degrees below average.  After this weekend, to get there, we will have to have some MEGA cold.  And guess what?  I think it will be cold again, BUT it will be difficult to get to that forecast as I thought.  Meteorologist Joe Bastardi of is the one who put that forecast out there.  I have nothing but tremendous respect for what he does and I'm not trying to "diss" him.  I could never do what he does.  I strongly disagreed with his forecast for March here in the south, but it IS rooted in sound meteorological principle.  He's one of the few out there who goes out on a limb, explains it scientifically, and puts his name on it!  It will be interesting to see how March ends up, but I have a feeling it will not end up as cold as he forecast here in Arkansas. We'll see

Now onto the maps courtesy of  If you love looking at model data, in my opinion, it's the best site out there.  The information is incredible.  It's subscription only, but for my profession, it's a must buy!

This is Sunday at 1PM.  Can you tell where the front is located?  Northern Arkansas is in the 40s while central and southern Arkansas will be in the 60s and 70s!!!!! HUGE temperature difference eh?  But this front will have a tough time moving south.

Here's the forecast from the Euro late Sunday.  You could be fishing along the Little Red River in Heber Springs and it's in the 50s.  Go to Searcy and it's near 70!!!!
This is late Thursday next week and there's a MEGA cold front and it's all the way through AR according to the Euro.  Look at that!!!!!!!!! Temperatures are in the 30s and 40s statewide Thursday!  Spring break fun??? Maybe not.
And this is late Friday.  More cold air.  What a way to spend the last part of spring break huh?  And yes, there's a very high chance for precipitation so stay tuned.  Mostly cold rain.


Anonymous said...

Wow, really hope that possible wintry weather miraculously makes it to central AR! It'll probably just be confined to NWA though..

Anonymous said...

I wish that this would pan out like the Christmas Day storm, the models initially showing snow for just NW AR but it gradually becomes a snow storm for central AR :)

Anonymous said...

Keep up the good work Todd, delay that wretched spring weather and keep winter alive as long as possible!

Anonymous said...

Anyone else notice that they skipped Sunday's forecast and went straight to Monday? Guess forecasting today was too hard for them. LOL

NOAA Winter Guidance