Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Winter Rolls into April

This will be a quick blog post with more to come later.  This March is breaking records all over the state and even all over the country. While I think we have at least a solid two weeks until REAL spring gets here, there's more very interesting weather next week.  In summary, we're not done with the cold yet.  I'll have more about the how cold it has been in a historical perspective, but it's becoming clear this will go down as the coldest March in decades for several locations around the state.  The good news, this keeps severe weather very limited, but I'm sure it will come roaring back at some point.  Hopefully  though this will shorten the severe weather season around here!

In the previous blog post I mentioned the sudden rise in the AO and research that has correlated that to heavy rain and/or severe weather events around here.  At the time of writing that post, it looked like a sizable chunk of energy would roll off the Pacific and form a large storm system this weekend, but now all the models hold that energy well to the west.  So the severe threat is lessened and this will be more of a rain event and it would not surprise me to see at least a couple inches of rain.  The northern branch of the jet will deliver another shot of cold air next week, then that energy hanging out west may come in and interact with it.  And yes, it would not surprise me if someone in Arkansas had some sort of wintry weather next week.  We'll see how that plays out.  Again more coming later, but here are a few maps about this weekend and next week.

This is the GFS at 1PM Easter Sunday.  This shows precipitation amounts over the previous 6 hours.  After several rounds of rainfall, there's at least a chance it will be over Easter morning for some portions of central and northern Arkansas.... A CHANCE.
The GFS is advertising a STRONG cold front late next Monday with another push of chilly air.  See how tightly packed those black lines are.  Those isobars indicate a rapid change of surface pressure in a short distance.  This produces very windy conditions.  The front is located from east TX through N. LA eastward.  The high is well north and the air is coming in on a ENE wind.  Again, the green blobs show precip over the last 6 hours and yes, that's a little snow on the north edge of the precip shield... NOT much though. Let's look at temps.
These are temperatures from the Euro model around that same time.  The cold front is plain and obvious here.  You go from 80s in west TX to 20s and 30s in OK.  That's remarkable!!!!  The cold air is seen pushing into northern Arkansas as well.  While the temperatures may reach spring like levels, another push of cold air is on the way it appears by Monday night into Tuesday.
DON'T TRUST THE SPECIFICS!!!!!!!!!!  This is the GFS next Wednesday.   A WEEK AWAY!   There is absolutely NO way the model will get this exactly right, but look at the idea.  The upside down "U" in the Gulf is low pressure forming with cold air in place.  Remember that upper level energy out west?  Well here it comes and it's a COLD miserable rain again and the model sees a wintry mix over west central to NW AR.  DON'T TRUST THE DETAILS HERE, BUT I CAN'T DECLARE WINTER OVER WITH BECAUSE OF THIS.


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NOAA Winter Guidance