Monday, April 08, 2013

Spring Throws Its First Severe Punch

When I saw the potential for rough weather last week, I wanted to create as much awareness about it as possible.  With the lack of severe weather this season (except for January), it's our job to bring this to your attention.  The goal... no one is caught off guard and the potential harm to anyone is lessened. 

With that said, we continue to look at the potential for some severe weather and as I mentioned on the 10 o'clock news Sunday, the main threat will likely be Wednesday.  If I had to break down the threat even further, it appears eastern Arkansas will have the biggest potential for hail, wind, and isolated tornadoes.  While this could change between now and then, I do not expect an "outbreak".  At some point, I hope someone comes up with a good definition of that term.  It's thrown around too often and can unnecessarily scare people.  

The term "anafront" is being thrown around and I know many do not understand what that means.  This simply implies the majority of the rain and storm activity is BEHIND the frontal boundary.  This LESSENS the severe potential due to the colder, more stable air at the surface behind the front.  In these situations, the primary threat is heavy rain (flooding and hail).  Ahead of the front is where the atmosphere has the potential to become unstable.  This is most likely to be the case across eastern Arkansas.  While there will be the potential for hail, wind, and an isolated tornadoes, I don't expect an "outbreak".

The Storm Prediction Center has most of Arkansas in a slight risk for severe weather Wednesday.
The area outlined in red indicates there is a 30% chance for severe weather within 25 miles of any given point.
Heavy rainfall will be an issue.  WPC indicates 2'' or more across much of central, eastern, and southern Arkansas.

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