Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Springs 1st Severe Punch Arrives Today

 If you have been following me on twitter you have seen how wild this storm is across the plains.  Tuesday night in western Oklahoma into Kansas there was some of the wackiest weather I have seen in a very, very long time... severe thunderstorms with large amounts of hail and temperatures in the upper 20s.  These storms were accompanied by heavy freezing rain and sleet.  At one point in Ellis county, Oklahoma, several inches of hail covered the ground with surface temperatures in the upper 20s.  There were several accidents reported.  While we will not get the extreme weather they had, this is the same storm system which will arrive today here in Arkansas.

I really have no changes to what I have been saying for the past several days.  This will more than likely not be an outbreak in Arkansas, although there will be some severe thunderstorm activity with hail, wind, and heavy rainfall the main threat.  Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out and I'll show you the favored area below, but it hasn't changed since yesterday.  I have very specific information below in regards to the timing and what to expect.

Can you see where the front is located at 4 PM this afternoon?  WOW!  It looks like Mt. Ida is around 70 while Mena is in the 40s!!!!  Right along that sharp contrast (the cold front) strong to severe thunderstorms will develop.
This is simulated radar at 4PM.  The leading edge of this is along that front and that's where the highest chance for severe weather will be found, but it's categorized as "slight" by the SPC.  Look at all the precip. behind the front.  The main threat there will be heavy rain and hail.
By 7PM, that front is moving into central AR with a contrast in temperature that would make January proud!!!! 70s ahead and 40s behind! Amazing stuff for April!  Click on this if you want to enlarge.
Simulated radar at 7PM, shows the strong to severe thunderstorms along the front.  Look at the heavy rain continuing behind it.
By 1AM in the morning Thursday, the front is located on the Mississippi River and cold air is spilling into the state, but it won't last too long.
By 1 AM, the rain and storms area located across the east.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) shows a slight risk for the entire state Wednesday.
There may be enough instability and shear to produce an isolated tornado or two across the brown shaded area.  This means there's a 5% chance for a tornado within 25 miles of any given point.  That's pretty low.
There may be a lot of wind with the line of storms.  There's a 30% chance for severe winds within 25 miles of any given point in the red shaded area.
There's a 15% chance for severe hail within 25 miles of any given point in the yellow shaded area.
The heaviest rainfall totals will likely fall across the eastern half of the state with 2-3'' + possible.

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