Tuesday, May 14, 2013

More Records Could Be Broken This Spring

All the talk this spring has been about the cool weather.  Hundreds of record lows were broken all over the state early this month not only in Arkansas, but across much of the central United States.

When we look at the data from March, April, and May, meteorologists and all the climatological data in the record books call these months "spring".  We're about half way through May with just a little more than 2 weeks until meteorological spring is over and meteorological summer begins. (June 1).

So where do we stand right now in Little Rock?  If spring ended today, it would break all records for the coldest spring on record.
  • The average seasonal high temperature so far is 66.9 degrees.  Number 1 on the list is 67.30 degrees set in 1983
  • The average seasonal low temperature so far is 44.80 degrees.  Number 1 on the list is 45.91 degrees set in 1971
  • The average seasonal temperature 55.85 degrees.  Number 1 on the list is 57.7 degrees set in 1983. 
However, we all know we have plenty of time for these numbers to change.  So let's assume "average" temperatures from now until the end of the month.  How would that stack up with recorded data so far?
  • The average high temperature would be 70.02 degrees and would NOT fall within the top 10 list.
  • The average low temperature would be 48.03 degrees and would be 4th coldest spring on record
  • The average seasonal temperature would be the 7th coldest on record with 59.03 degrees.

NOAA is forecasting a good chance for below average temperatures in the 6-10 day time period which would change my "average" assumptions above
In the 8-14 day time period, NOAA is suggesting temperatures near to a little below average.  This too would change the outcome of my assumptions.

In summary, it's looking likely this spring will go down in the record books as one of the coolest on record in Little Rock since they started keeping them in the 1870s.  We'll see how it all shakes out and I'll let you know!

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NOAA Winter Guidance